March 15, 2013 - THE SUN - As expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's
magnetic field on March 15th at approximately 0500
UT. The impact was weak, but conditions for geomagnetic
storming could develop as Earth passes through the
CME's wake. High latitude sky watchers should be
alert for auroras on March 15th and 16th.
POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) captured the CME just as it was leaving the sun:
WATCH: Full Halo CME - March 15, 2013.
WATCH: H-Alpha movie by the Learmonth, Australia observatory showing what has the potential to be a significant eruption around Sunspot 1692.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM CATEGORY G2 PREDICTED: According Code WATA30 from the NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center, a solar watch is now on for a Geomagnetic Storm Category G2.
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 16: G1 (Minor) Mar 17: G2 (Moderate) Mar 18: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
LONG DURATION ERUPTION AND EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A long duration and potentially significant eruption was observed early Friday morning around Sunspot 1692. The eruption peaked at M1.2 and generated a Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Based on the location of the eruption site and new imagery from Lasco C2, there is a good chance the CME is almost squarely directed towards Earth. This could lead to Geomagnetic Storming within 24-48 hours.
CME FORECAST UPDATE: The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model has been updated to include the Coronal Mass Ejection from the long duration M1.2 event around Sunspot 1692 this morning. The fast moving cloud should directly impact Earth by tomorrow evening. The predicted Solar Wind speed past Earth is expected to exceed 800 km/s as per the model. Geomagnetic Storming which could lead to Aurora displays will be possible.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 15 0631 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Mar 15 0649 UTC
End Time: 2013 Mar 15 0651 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
SUNSPOTS & CORONAL HOLES: Sunspot AR1692 was involved in an M1-class sola flare on March 15th. Solar activity is picking up.
Solar wind flowing
from this coronal hole could reach Earth on March
19-20.
SOURCES: Space Weather | Solar Ham | NOAA/SWPC.
POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) captured the CME just as it was leaving the sun:
WATCH: Full Halo CME - March 15, 2013.
WATCH: H-Alpha movie by the Learmonth, Australia observatory showing what has the potential to be a significant eruption around Sunspot 1692.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM CATEGORY G2 PREDICTED: According Code WATA30 from the NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center, a solar watch is now on for a Geomagnetic Storm Category G2.
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 16: G1 (Minor) Mar 17: G2 (Moderate) Mar 18: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
 |
| A full-halo Coronal Mass Ejection, directed almost squarely towards Earth. |
 |
| A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. |
LONG DURATION ERUPTION AND EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A long duration and potentially significant eruption was observed early Friday morning around Sunspot 1692. The eruption peaked at M1.2 and generated a Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Based on the location of the eruption site and new imagery from Lasco C2, there is a good chance the CME is almost squarely directed towards Earth. This could lead to Geomagnetic Storming within 24-48 hours.
CME FORECAST UPDATE: The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model has been updated to include the Coronal Mass Ejection from the long duration M1.2 event around Sunspot 1692 this morning. The fast moving cloud should directly impact Earth by tomorrow evening. The predicted Solar Wind speed past Earth is expected to exceed 800 km/s as per the model. Geomagnetic Storming which could lead to Aurora displays will be possible.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 15 0631 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Mar 15 0649 UTC
End Time: 2013 Mar 15 0651 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
 |
| The CME track released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is similar to the WSA-Enlil forecast released earlier this morning by NOAA. A direct hit tomorrow could lead to strong geomagnetic storming and widespread aurora. |
 |
| Geomagnetic
activity near our poles is currently low, however that could change by
tomorrow night once a fast moving CME is expected to sweep past Earth. A
geomagnetic storm watch has been issued by the NOAA Space Weather
Prediction Center. They are calling for Moderate G2 Level Geomagnetic
storm conditions heading into Sunday (UTC time). |
SUNSPOTS & CORONAL HOLES: Sunspot AR1692 was involved in an M1-class sola flare on March 15th. Solar activity is picking up.
 |
| Credit: SDO/HMI. |
 |
| Credit: SDO/AIA. |
SOURCES: Space Weather | Solar Ham | NOAA/SWPC.
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