Sunday, November 10, 2013

SOLAR WATCH: Yet Another X-Flare On The Sun - Sunspot 1890 Explodes With Major X1.1 Solar Flare And CME; Earth-Directed Component; 40% Chance Of Polar Geomagnetic Storms On November 10!

November 10, 2013 - SUN - As predicted, sunspot AR1890 has unleashed another strong flare, an X1-class explosion on Nov. 10th at 05:14 UT.

X-FLARE: Solar activity again reached high levels with an X1 solar flare detected around sunspot 1890. The event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with a velocity of 1012 km/s and a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 350 solar flux units (sfu).

Iimage by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) captures a strong X1.1 solar flare.

This is the third X-flare from AR1890 since November 5th, and all three have something in common: brevity. AR1890 tends to produce impulsive flares, peaking sharply in a matter of minutes or less. Often, brief flares do not produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but this one could be an exception. A movie of the flare shows a plume of material lifting off the Sun shortly after the UV flash. That could be the beginnings of an Earth-directed CME.

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2013 Nov 10 0508 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Nov 10 0514 UTC
End Time: 2013 Nov 10 0518 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S14W13
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

The CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center.

CME IMPACT: Coronagraph imagery by LASCO C2/C3 is now available following the X1 solar flare Saturday night. Although not exceptionally bright, the expanding shock front does appear to be Earth directed. The latest CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a direct CME impact by late November 12th. Geomagnetic storming will be possible once the plasma cloud arrives. 

WATCH:  EARTH-FACING X1.1 Solar Flare - November 10, 2013.

AURORA WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% of polar geomagnetic storms on November 10th as a stream of solar wind buffets Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

A high speed solar wind stream coupled with periods of southward Bz, helped generate awesome aurora displays
at high latitudes. Friday night and into Saturday morning. Mike Isaak in Alberta, Canada sends us the great
image above he captured from Elk Island National Park after 5:30am local time. Visual aurora will be possible
in the days ahead with a weak CME impact also possible during the next 48 hours.

SUNSPOTS: All other regions remain fairly stable. Region 1887 continues to decay as it rotates towards the northwest limb. Region 1891 located in the southwest quadrant is now spotless. New sunspot 1895 was numbered after rotating into view off the southeast limb.

Big sunspot AR1890 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.
Credit: SDO/HMI

CORONAL HOLE: There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

Credit: SDO/AIA.

SOURCES: Space Weather | Solar Watcher | Solar Ham | SWPC/NOAA.

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