November 13, 2014 - RUSSIA -
On September 1, 2014 the US State Department published a report, in
which it was stated that for first time since the collapse of the USSR,
Russia reached parity with the US in the field of strategic nuclear
weapons. Thus, Washington admitted that Moscow regained the status that
the Soviet Union had obtained by mid-70's of the XX century and then
lost.
Russia prepares nuclear surprise for NATO
According
to the report from the State Department, Russia has 528 carriers of
strategic nuclear weapons that carry 1,643 warheads. The United States
has 794 vehicles and 1,652 nuclear warheads.
It just so happens
that today, Russia's strategic nuclear forces (SNF) are even more
advanced in comparison with those of the US, as they ensure parity on
warheads with a significantly smaller number of carriers of strategic
nuclear weapons. This gap between Russia and the United States may only
grow in the future, given the fact that Russian defense officials
promised to rearm Russia's SNF with new generation missiles.
The
progress was made possible thanks to the treaty on the limitation of
nuclear weapons, also known as START-3. The treaty was signed by Dmitry
Medvedev and Barack Obama on 8 April 2010 in Prague (came into force on 5
February 2011). In accordance with the document, nuclear warheads of
the parties are to be reduced to 1,550 by 2021. The number of carriers
(intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic
missiles and heavy bombers) is supposed to be cut to 700 units.
It
was the first strategic agreement, after the treacherous policy of
democrats, in which Russia managed to win significant advantages. In the
treaty, the Americans, for the first time in history, undertook to
reduce their strategic nuclear potential, while Russia won an
opportunity to increase it. Furthermore, the new treaty removed
important limitations that existed in the previous START 1 and START 2
treaties. It goes about the size of areas for the deployment of mobile
ICBMs, the number of multi charge ICBMs, and the possibility to build
railway-based ICBMs. Russia did not make any concessions.
Having
written off Moscow as a serious geopolitical rival, flying on the wings
of inaccessible military and technological superiority, Washington drove
itself into a trap, from which it does not see a way out even in a
medium-term perspective.
Recently, a lot has been said about
so-called "sixth-generation wars" and high-precision long-range weapons
that should ensure victory over enemy without coming into direct contact
with its armed forces. This concept is highly questionable (The US
failed to achieve victory in such a way both in Iraq and Afghanistan).
Yet, this is the point, where Russia enters the parity line as well. The
proof is long-range cruise missiles of a new generation that will soon
be deployed on submarines of the Black Sea Fleet and missile ships of
the Caspian Flotilla.
In today's Russia, many find this hard to
believe. This is a common belief for many of those, who still
enthusiastically remain in captivity of the myths about the absolute
"weakness" of Russia and the absolute "superiority" of the West. The
myth was made up in the 90's under the influence of Boris Yeltsin and
his betrayal of Russian national interests. One has to admit that during
that time, the myth was real, if one may say so.
Times have changed. One can easily understand the new state of affairs.
For
example, let's consider the potential of conventional weapons of Russia
and the West in the European Theater of Operations (ETO). In this area,
it is generally believed that NATO is a lot stronger than Russia.
Yet, a
first encounter with reality smashes this misbelief into pieces.
As
is known, the main striking force, the core of combat power of the
ground forces are tanks. By the time of the collapse of the Soviet
Union, the Russian Armed Forces had about 20,000 tanks in the ETO.
The
Americans, in turn, deployed 6,000 heavy Abrams tanks on the territory
of the allied group. Despite this, the combined potential of NATO forces
in Europe was still significantly inferior to the Soviet potential. To
compensate this imbalance, NATO strategists were forced to resort to
tactical nuclear weapons (TNW).
In the first half of the 1950s,
NATO conducted a research about what kind of forces the bloc should have
to show reliable resistance to large-scale ground offensive of superior
forces of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries. The calculations
showed then that one required at least 96 full-fledged divisions for the
purpose. Yet, the cost of armament for one of such divisions exceeded
$1 billion. Plus, one required two or three more billion to maintain
such a large group of troops and build appropriate infrastructure. This
burden was clearly beyond the power of the economy of the West.
The
solution was found in a move to deploy a group of US tactical nuclear
weapons on the continent, and that was done soon. By early 1970s, the US
arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons counted about 7,000 units of
ammunition. The highest achievement in the area was the creation of
weapons of selective action - neutron warheads (for guns of 203-mm and
155-mm caliber, and for Lance missiles) with a capacity from 1 to 10
kilotons. The warheads were seen as the key in combating land forces
personnel, particularly Soviet tank crews.
Given the nuclear
factor, to reflect "Soviet aggression," NATO required to deploy only 30,
rather than 96 divisions, and so they were deployed.
How do
things work in this area now? In early 2013, the Americans withdrew the
last group of heavy Abrams tanks from Europe. In NATO countries, over
the last 20 years, one new tank would replace 10-15 old, yet still
capable, tanks. At the same time, Russia was not decommissioning its
tanks.
As a result, today Russia is the absolute leader in this
regard. In mid-2014, the balance of the Defense Ministry had as many as
18,177 tanks (T-90 - 400 pcs., T-72B - 7,144 pcs., T-80 - 4,744 pcs,
T-64 - 4,000 pcs, T-62 - 689 pcs, and T-55 - 1200 pcs.).
Of
course, only a few thousand tanks are deployed in permanent readiness
units, and most of them remain at storage bases. Yet, NATO has the same
picture. Therefore, the decisive superiority of Russian tanks has not
gone anywhere since the times of the USSR.
Here is another surprise. As for tactical nuclear weapons, the superiority of modern-day Russia over NATO is even stronger.
The Americans are well aware of this. They were convinced before that Russia would never rise again. Now it's too late.
To
date, NATO countries have only 260 tactical nuclear weapons in the ETO.
The United States has 200 bombs with a total capacity of 18 megatons.
They are located on six air bases in Germany, Italy, Belgium, the
Netherlands and Turkey. France has 60 more atomic bombs. That is pretty
much it. Russia, according to conservative estimates, has 5,000 pieces
of different classes of TNW - from Iskander warheads to torpedo, aerial
and artillery warheads! The US has 300 tactical B-61 bombs on its own
territory, but this does not change the situation against the backdrop
of such imbalance. The US is unable to improve it either, as it has
destroyed the "Cold War legacy" - tactical nuclear missiles, land-based
missiles and nuclear warheads of sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles. -
Pravda.
Russia plans long-range bomber flights near U.S. shores
 |
| A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor, top, escorts a Russian Air Force Tu-95 bomber off the coast of Alaska during 2011. |
Russia
plans to send long-range bombers to the Gulf of Mexico in what appears
to be Moscow's latest provocative maneuver in its increasingly frosty
relations with the West.
Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said
Wednesday that "we have to maintain (Russia's) military presence in the
western Atlantic and eastern Pacific, as well as the Caribbean and the
Gulf of Mexico" -- including sending bombers "as part of the drills."
Shoigu added that Russia will also boost its security in Crimea, the
region it annexed from Ukraine earlier this year.
"In many
respects, this is connected with the situation in Ukraine, with
fomentation of anti-Russian moods on the part of NATO and reinforcement
of foreign military presence next to our border," Shoigu said.
The
situation in Ukraine remains very much unsettled, as it has been since
early this year. In fact, there are signs that the violence there is
growing worse, with U.S. and allied officials accusing Moscow of sending
fresh troops, tanks and other military equipment across the border in
recent days -- something that Russian officials have strongly denied.
It's
also true, of course, that Ukraine sits some 6,000 miles from the Gulf
of Mexico. But the fact the situation there is being used as
justification for military moves elsewhere speaks to the broader
implications stemming from the tensions between Russia and the West,
particularly the United States.
The plans come after Shoigu said
Russia will expand its presence in the Arctic region, which would
seemingly affect Alaska and northern Canada. This includes full radar
coverage of that region by year's end, leaving Russia ready "to meet
unwanted guests" both from the north and east by 2015, Shoigu said,
according to a state-run TASS news agency report.
Jeffrey
Mankoff, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
said the Russians are "clearly" trying to make a point with their plan
to send bombers toward the Gulf of Mexico, a message "connected to the
tensions over Ukraine that have also affected the broader relationship."
"It's
kind of a reciprocity," Mankoff told CNN. "They see us trying to muscle
in on what they see as their sphere of influence. (Russia is likely
thinking), 'If they can do it to us, we can do it them.'"
Russian planes flew near U.S. before
It's
not as though the United States doesn't have its own warplanes in
places like Japan and Turkey, not to mention NATO air operations
assisting Albania, Slovenia and Baltic nations. And Mankoff, who
previously served as a U.S. State Department adviser on U.S.-Russia
relations, notes that the U.S. military also sometimes flies not far
from Russia -- also to send a message, as well as to test things like
response times.
"It's not necessarily anything to be overly alarmed about as long as the patrols stay in international airspace," he said.
And, as recently as June, U.S. fighter jets have intercepted Russian long-range bombers off Alaska and California.
Those
four Russian planes flew within an area 200 miles from the North
American coast. Two peeled off and headed west, while the other two flew
south and were intercepted by U.S. F-15s within 50 miles of the
California coast.
Capt. Jeff Davis, a spokesman for the North
American Aerospace Defense Command, said at the time that this was the
first time U.S. jets intercepted Russian military aircraft off
California in about two years. But such incidents generally are not
uncommon, with Davis estimating that Russian flights fly into the
so-called air defense zone -- the area 200 miles from the U.S. coast but
not within the 13.8 miles that international law would define as U.S.
territory -- 10 times a year.
Yet there are signs that Russia has
stepped up its military provocations as of late, some of which the
European Leadership Network documented earlier this week.
Last
month, the Swedish military searched for a mystery underwater vessel
after intercepting an emergency radio call in Russian and getting
reports about a foreign vessel being spotted in the waters near
Stockholm. Though no vessel was found, it was the largest submarine hunt
in Swedish waters since the end of the Cold War.
In September,
the United States intercepted six Russian planes, including fighter jets
and tankers, in airspace near Alaska, officials said.
The same
month, an Estonian official was abducted from a border post, taken to
Moscow and accused of espionage, sparking dueling claims between the two
nations.
Analyst: 'Real danger' is accident, overreaction
And not only have the encounters escalated, so have the risks.
In March, a covert Russian military plane nearly collided with a Swedish passenger aircraft carrying 132 people.
The
"real danger" of new Russian flights near the American coast is that an
accident actually happens or things "get a little bit out of hand."
"If there's a collision or if somebody overreacted," Mankoff said, that could inflame U.S.-Russia tensions even further.
He
recalled a 2001 incident, in which a U.S. spy plane collided with a
Chinese fighter jet before making an emergency landing inside China.
That episode shook up relations between Beijing and Washington.
During
the Cold War, Soviet warplanes were more frequent in areas around the
United States. But Mankoff noted that changed with the fall of the
Soviet Union, in part because of cost.
Things slowly changed as
Russia took shape, long before Ukraine became an issue. And there's also
interest in Moscow in having close ties with its allies in the
Americas, such as Venezuela.
"When I was in government four or
five years ago, when there was definitely concern that this was becoming
more frequent even then," Mankoff said of about Russian military
provocations. "This isn't happening out of the blue."
Russia again denies it has troops in Ukraine
Still, there's no doubt that the Ukraine crisis is the driving wedge in U.S.-Russia relations at this point.
A
ceasefire deal reached in September has seemingly crumbled, with
intensified fighting of late between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian
rebels.
Those rebels have been joined by Russian troops, tanks,
artillery and air defense systems that have recently crossed the border,
according to U.S. Gen. Phillip Breedlove, NATO's commander for Europe.
On
Thursday, Ukrainian defense spokesman Andriy Lysenko said there's been
"constant movement of Russian military equipment with (separatist) marks
to the dividing line."
Yet Russia, as it's done time and again, is knocking down any claims that it has troops inside Ukrainian territory.
"I
am telling you very frankly and officially as well: There are no
military forces or any military movement across the border, and moreover
there is no presence of our troops in the territory of (southeast)
Ukraine," foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukhashevich said. -
CNN.
Russian flotilla bound for G20 in Brisbane
 |
Heading to intercept the Russian flotilla ... Royal Australian Navy (RAN) ship HMAS Stuart, with its 127mm gun capable of firing 20 rounds per minute.
Picture: New Corp Australia Source: News Corp Australia |
A
third Australian warship has been dispatched to intercept a Russian
flotilla steaming towards the G20 summit in Brisbane and a fourth navy
vessel is ready to divert to the area.
The replenishment ship
HMAS Sirius is heading into the Coral Sea to support the frigates HMAS
Parramatta and HMAS Stuart and the frigate HMAS Sydney is preparing to
divert from an exercise in New Zealand to join the mission, according to
a government source.
Both Parramatta and Stuart are understood to
be carrying Seahawk anti-submarine warfare helicopters, although
defence sources said it was unlikely that a Russian submarine is in the
area.
News Corp Australia understands that the government also
asked the Navy about the possibility of a Collins Class submarine
joining the mission but was told that the nearest boat was in Perth and
would not be able to reach the area until well after the G20 summit was
over.
Three RAAF AP-3C Orion maritime surveillance aircraft, also
equipped for anti-submarine warfare, have been sent to Amberley near
Brisbane and are maintaining a 24/7 patrol above the flotilla, according
to official sources.
 |
| Pride of Russian fleet bound for Brisbane ... The Russia Navy’s guided-missile cruiser, The Varyag. Source: AFP |
The Russian task group is steaming southwest
in the Coral Sea off Townsville at 15 knots and is due to arrive in
international waters off the G20 venue on Saturday November 15. The
ships will be off Rockhampton on Friday.
While Australian
officials have played down the presence of the flotilla led by the
Russian Pacific Fleet flagship the cruiser Varyag, frantic efforts have
been underway in Moscow to establish the intention of the fleet,
according to a government source.
It is understood that the
Australian Defence Attache in the Russian capital has advised senior
Russian military officers that the ships would be refused port access in
Brisbane unless there was an emergency.
The National Security
Committee of Cabinet is not scheduled to meet ahead of the weekend G20
conference but according to insiders the lines have been “running hot”.
Prime
Minister Tony Abbott threatened to “shirt-front” Mr Putin over Russia’s
role in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and the deaths of
38 Australian residents.
 |
Expected to be off Rockhampton on Friday ... The Russian flotilla is due to arrive in international waters off the G20 venue on Saturday November 15.
Source: News Corp Australia |
The unpredictable Russian strongman will arrive in Brisbane for the summit on Friday and is expecting a hostile reception.
Military fellow at the Lowy Institute James Brown said it made sense to have Russian warships nearby.
“If something did happen it helps to have military forces in the region,” Mr Brown said.
Defence
released a statement saying that Russian warships had been deployed to
previous international summits including the 2009 APEC meeting in
Singapore and the visit of President Medvedev to San Francisco in 2010.
Russian
has increased its global military activity in recent weeks with
submarine incursions in the Baltic, bomber flights over the Arctic and
the Caribbean and the task group in the South Pacific.
Swedish
Navy submarine Captain Jens Nykvist told a Submarine Institute
conference in Fremantle yesterday that the Baltic had returned to “Cold
War” status after years of peace.
“We have increased activities
and it has affected our operations ... we spend more time at sea. It is
an interesting future we see,” Captain Nykvist said.
The Defence Department confirmed the ship and aircraft deployments on Thursday night. -
News Australia.