December 17, 2014 - CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES
- If you’re thinking, “It’s never rained like this in December before”,
you are absolutely right. As of Wednesday night, this is the wettest
start to a December in Bay Area history, with weather records dating
back to before the Civil War.
San Jose is already #2 on the all-time wettest December list with 7.44 inches of rain. Put another way, the Bay Area’s most populous city has received 736 percent of its average December rainfall. Oakland (455 percent) and San Francisco (424 percent) aren’t that far behind.
Higher pressure will begin heading in our direction starting Thursday, and after some light rain on Friday, the Bay Area will dry out for at least 5-7 days. This map from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows the rainfall outlook through the end of the month. The brown colors denote a prediction for below-average precipitation.
(NOAA)
Many of you have e-mailed me asking about the rest of the winter. I’ll start with January. Interestingly, three of the wettest Decembers (10.70”+ rain) on record have happened in San Francisco since the year 2000. I looked back at the weather records to see what happened in the months that followed those soggy Decembers. Each time, we had BELOW-AVERAGE rainfall in January and February. Only once, the 2005-06 water year, did we end up with significantly more winter rain than what is expected. There’s no correlation to this winter, but I found it interesting nonetheless.
Many different computer forecast models try to predict the weather months in advance. All of these predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt, but one that I look at on a regular basis is the one pictured below.
(NOAA)
This particular forecast model peers all the way out six months and beyond. The snapshot above shows its prediction for JFM, or “January, February, March”. For several months, the CFSv2 model has predicted a wetter-than-average (the green & blue color) early 2015 for most of California. It also predicted a very wet December, so although there are differing opinions when it comes to computer models, this one has been on a hot streak recently. It’s no guarantee, but I’m leaning toward wetter-than-average conditions to return sometime in January.
Even if we were to get “normal” rainfall (and mountain snow) for the rest of the winter, this would be one of the wettest water years that we have had in the Bay Area in a decade. After three straight extremely dry winters, that is music to water manager’s ears. - CBS San Francisco.
A man removes snow from a sidewalk in Nagoya in Aichi prefecture,
central Japan on December 18, 2014 as heavy snow hit wide areas of
Japan.
(JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images)
December 18, 2014 - ASIA
- A massive storm system dropped feet of snow on parts of Asia this
week, leading to travel problems and at least 11 deaths in Japan.
Japan Snowstorm Dumps Feet of Snow, Kills 11; Hundreds of Flights Canceled
"As
of late Thursday night, local time, Tsunan, Japan reported a snow depth
of 81.5 inches (207 centimeters)," said weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman. "Seven
other locations in western Honshu reported at least 150 centimeters
(about 59 inches) of snow depth, according to the Japan Meteorological
Agency."
News Australia reported an elderly woman was killed when she was hit by a snow plow in Hokkaido, and a 68-year-old man died when he fell off the roof of his home in Niigata while removing snow.
Japan's Nagoya castle is covered with snow in Nagoya in Aichi
prefecture, central Japan on December 18, 2014 as heavy snow hit wide
areas of Japan.
(JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images)
A woman walks on a snow covered road in Obihiro in Japan's northern
island of Hokkaido on December 17, 2014. (JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images)
Children play in a snow covered park in Sapporo in Japan's northern
island of Hokkaido on December 17, 2014. (JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images)
Vehicles are seen on a snow-covered street in Obihiro in Japan's
northern island of Hokkaido on December 17, 2014. (JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty
Images)
Vehicles are seen on a snow-covered street in Obihiro in Japan's
northern island of Hokkaido on December 17, 2014. (JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty
Images)
The storm also trapped three men on Mount Shiraga
on the island of Shikoku in western Japan, according to NHK. The report
said the men became stuck on the mountain because of heavy snowfall,
and a rescue was planned for Thursday morning.
WATCH: Video footage of a blizzard which struck the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido on Wednesday, December 17, 2014.
Travel was also affected by the big storm, both in the air and on the ground. Some 550 flights have been canceled Wednesday and Thursday, News Australia reported, and dozens of cars were stuck underneath huge snow drifts on city roads.
"The current sea-effect snow event should wind down by Friday," said Erdman. "However, another strong frontal system this weekend could reactivate the sea-effect snow machine in Japan through Monday. Snow cover by early next week could be very impressive in the most typically hard-hit sea-effect areas."
American Airlines Flight Hits Turbulence Flying Through Powerful Winter Storm Near Japan; As Many As 14 Reported Injured
Earlier,
a U.S.-bound passenger jet was forced to make an emergency landing near
Tokyo Tuesday night after encountering severe turbulence while flying
through a rapidly intensifying winter storm. Five people on the flight
were hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries, according to a
statement released by American Airlines, and as many as nine other
passengers were treated at the scene.
American Airlines Flight 280, which originated at Incheon International Airport near Seoul, South Korea, was flying east when it hit severe turbulence around 8 p.m. Tuesday Japanese time (6 a.m. Eastern Standard Time). Public broadcaster NHK said the jet was flying over Japan between Ishikawa and Ibaraki prefectures, north of Tokyo, at the time.
NHK said the plane, which was en route to Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, continued its planned flight over the Pacific Ocean to a point about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) east of Japan's coast before making a U-turn. The plane landed safely at 12:55 a.m. Wednesday (10:55 a.m. Eastern Standard Time Tuesday) at Narita International Airport near Tokyo, according to ABC News. WATCH: Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari explains how jet streak may have caused extreme turbulence on a recent flight, injuring at least 5.
NHK initially said 10 passengers and four crew members were injured on the plane, but later lowered that figure to 12. The broadcaster said one of the crew members had a suspected bone fracture, but the other injuries were minor.
"American's primary concern at this time is for our passengers and crew on board the airplane and our team in Narita is providing assistance. We will provide additional information as it becomes available," said the airline in a statement released after the incident.
A powerful winter storm over Japan, associated with a powerful ribbon of 200- to 240-mph winds in the jet stream, some 35,000 feet above sea level. The center of low pressure was moving north near the Pacific coast of northern Japan. It became a meteorological "bomb" as its central pressure plummeted at least 44 millibars in 17 hours while it tracked along Japan's Pacific coast from south of Osaka to the eastern tip of the country's northernmost major island, Hokkaido.
The storm system was developing over the flight path of the American Airlines jet, which appeared to be crossing through a section of the powerful jet stream winds.
On The Ground: 90-mph Winds Stoke Blizzard, Storm Surge Fears
The
storm itself prompted blizzard warnings for parts of 11 prefectures in
northern and western Japan. Parts of Hokkaido reported more than 2 feet
of snow from the storm, with snowfall rates as high as 5 inches per
hour. The city of Obihiro, shown in the photo below, reported 60 cm (24
inches) of snow.
More heavy snow was expected in Japan Wednesday as cold winds in the wake of the storm blow across the Sea of Japan, generating bands of heavy sea-effect snow. Some of the world's snowiest places are in the mountains of northern and central Japan due to frequent sea-effect snows in the winter months.
Vehicles are seen on a snow-covered street in Obihiro in Japan's
northern island of Hokkaido on December 17, 2014. (JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty
Images)
In the village of Hinoemata in western Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, more
than 30 inches of snow covers the ground following a large storm,
Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014. (Instagram/@marn_9)
In the village of Hinoemata in western Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, more
than 30 inches of snow covers the ground following a large storm,
Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014. (Instagram/@marn_9)
In the village of Hinoemata in western Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, more
than 30 inches of snow covers the ground following a large storm,
Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014. (Instagram/@marn_9)
High wind warnings were posted for several regions, including coastal areas near Tokyo. Winds gusted as high as 93 mph over the Izu Islands just south of Tokyo Bay, where tornado warnings were issued Tuesday evening local time.
As the storm "bombed out" -- that is, intensified rapidly -- it brought an 89-mph gust to the city of Nemuro, near the eastern tip of Hokkaido, around 5 a.m. local time Wednesday. Three hours later, the barometric pressure plummeted to 951.6 millibars (28.10 inches of mercury) in that city. The winds damaged roofs and broke windows in Nemuro, according to NHK, but there were no immediate reports of injuries.
The Japan Meteorological Agency issued storm surge warnings for the Pacific coast of Hokkaido in advance of the storm, warning that water levels could rise 4 feet above normal tide levels. NHK said authorities were recommending evacuations for parts of Nemuro Wednesday morning due to storm surge concerns.- The Weather Channel.
Heavy snowfall strands about 6,000 tourists in the India, Himachal, resort of Manali
About
6,000 tourists were stranded in the popular resort of Manali as on
Monday, even as electricity supply in the area remained disrupted for
the second day after Sunday’s snowfall.
Landline phones have been out of order since Saturday evening, while mobile phone service is partially operational in the area.
A majority of the roads leading to Manali town remained closed for traffic. Traffic on the Kiratpur-Manali national highway (NH-21) remained disrupted, even as the Himachal Pradesh government made use of excavators to clear snow-laden roads. The main roads connecting Manali from the left and right banks of the Beas river could not be opened for traffic on Monday.
The road on the right bank had been cleared of snow till Kalauth, about 7km from Manali town, while the one on the left had been cleared till Naggar village, nearly 20km from the tourist resort.
“Hopefully, these roads will be opened for traffic on Tuesday morning,” said Lalit Bushan, superintending engineer, public works department (PWD), Kullu.
Manali recorded 65cm snowfall and sub-zero night temperature on Sunday. The minimum temperature was recorded at -2.2C, while the maximum on Monday was about 2C. “Though we were delighted to witness snowfall, it has become difficult for us without electricity and telecommunication service,” said Madan Lal, a tourist from Faridabad (Haryana).
Madan, who got stuck in a snowstorm on the Rohtang Pass, walked 10-15km from Marhi to reach Manali. Nearly 2,500 tourists were stranded at Rohtang on Saturday when it snowed heavily. All tourists were rescued by the police and the district administration; 28 of them were lodged at the rescue hut at Marhi.
“There are nearly 6,000 tourists stuck in Manali,” deputy superintendent of police, Manali, Puran Chand told Hindustan Times. In the absence of electricity, some hotels relied on power generators, while there were many which had no arrangement for heating rooms. The main 132-KW line supplying electricity to Kullu and Manali was snapped at Bajuaru following heavy snowfall.
“The lines are being restored. It would take another day or so to restore electricity supply,” said Partap Negi, chief managing director of the Himachal Pradesh Electricity Board Limited.
Disruption of traffic has severely hit the supply of daily commodities in the area. “Hoteliers and shopkeepers have stocks of commodities. We have given directions to the police and civic administration to ensure that tourists are not overcharged by hoteliers and eateries,” said additional district magistrate Vinay Thakur.
In the wake of the heavy snowfall, chief minister Virbhadra Singh on Monday chaired a meeting to take stock of the situation. He directed the authorities concerned to restore water and power supply and other essential services within two days.
“The damage to roads should be assessed and steps taken to open all routes, wherever they are blocked due to heavy snowfall and landslides,” he said. It was decided to release Rs. 5 crore to the PWD through the State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) to undertaken necessary measures to clear the roads. - Hindustan Times.
Heavy snowfall in Korea as temperatures drop sharply
A
mix of rain and snow hit the entire nation on Monday, weather
forecasters said, adding that heavy snowfall will continue through
Tuesday morning in Seoul and nearby regions.
The Korea
Meteorological Administration said that Gangwon Province and the
surrounding mountainous area saw up to 20 centimeters of heavy snowfall,
while Seoul and Gyeonggi Province received 1 to 5 centimeters of snow.
Jeolla Province and the west coast area got 3 to 8 centimeters of snow.
Weather forecasters said that snow may turn into rain due to relatively milder temperatures throughout this week.
With
the chances of rain at 60 to 90 percent in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gangwon and
South Chungcheong provinces, forecasters encouraged people to keep an
umbrella handy before heading out.
The morning low in Seoul on Monday stood at minus 3 degrees Celsius and the afternoon temperature rose to 3 degrees Celsius.
Other cities including Daegu, Gwangju and Busan saw milder afternoons at 6, 8 and 9 degrees Celsius.
The
KMA said that heavy snowfall this week is due to a wave of cold air
moving southward, causing snowfall in mountainous regions.
For
Wednesday, temperatures are expected to drop as much as 10 degrees
Celsius following the heavy snow and rainfall. The KMA said most regions
will see strong wind and freezing subzero temperatures.
The
morning low on Wednesday is forecast to hit minus 16 degrees Celsius in
Gangwon Province, while Seoul’s morning temperature is expected to
plunge to minus 12 degrees Celsius.
Incheon, Suwon and Daejeon
are forecast to experience chilly weather as well, with the temperatures
forecast to be at minus 11, 12 and 8 degrees Celsius, respectively.
The KMA said the wind chill would lower the actual temperature people feel outside to hit as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius.
As
the cold weather warnings may be issued for the central areas of
peninsula on Wednesday, the KMA said people should make sure outdoor
facilities do not freeze. - Korea Herald.
WATCH: Mini Ice Age 2015-2030 - From India to Japan, Trapped Tourists and 120cm Snowfalls.
December 18, 2014 - UNITED STATES
- A "superbomb" storm is being predicted for Christmas Day in the
Northeast United states according to WeatherBell Meteorologist Dr. Ryan
Maue who has pointed out it looks to be reminiscent of the Cleveland Superbomb of 1978 aka the "Great New England Blizzard of 1978″.
This GFS forecast model for Christmas Day shows the depth of the low,
poised to gather moisture from the Great Lakes and dump it into the
Northeastern U.S. over the next 24-48 hours, potentially making Christmas and post-Christmas travel a nightmare, but ... there is a twist.
Dr. Maue adds on his Twitter feed:
Exciting to see extreme weather forecasts with an item that requires dusting off the record books. 958 mb low
For reference, a
958 millibar low pressure system is as low as the central pressure for
some tropical storms and nearly that of some hurricanes. For example
Hurricane Sandy had a central pressure of 940 mbar or 27.76 inHg.
Meteorologists have a name for a storm that occurs when air pressure drops very rapidly as a jet stream brings in moisture: a weather bomb.
In late January 1978, a low-pressure system moving from the Gulf Coast
met with two other low-pressure systems, one from the Southwest and one
from Canada, to create one of the worst snowstorms the Midwest has ever
seen. With barometric pressure so low, it was more like a hurricane than a snowstorm,
the so-called Cleveland Superbomb dumped 1-3 ft. (30-90 cm) of snow on
several Midwestern states, including Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. Wind
gusts approached 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h), causing snowdrifts to reach
heights of 25 ft. (8 m) in some areas. Such snowdrifts made roadways
impassable, forcing doctors and emergency personnel to ski and
snowmobile their way to those in need. Indiana's governor sent tanks
down I-65 to remove stranded trucks, while in Ohio, National Guard
helicopters flew some 2,700 missions to help stranded drivers. About 70
deaths are attributed to the storm.
While the Cleveland Superbomb has an intriguing name, the most
well-known snowstorm of that year was known simply as the Great New
England Blizzard of 1978. On Feb. 6, about two weeks after the
Superbomb, a blizzard dealt Boston and other parts of the Northeast as
many as 27 in. (69 cm) of snow with winds of 80-110 m.p.h. (130-180
km/h). Thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed and approximately
100 people died.
Maue adds:
I'll add, it also has nothing to do with that other favorite catchphrase of the media, the "polar vortex". - WUWT.
December 18, 2014 - RUSSIA -
Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding his annual marathon Q&A.
He is expected to touch on a variety of themes during a year of great
economic and geopolitical turbulence.
The much-anticipated
Q&A marathon is expected to be heavy on economics and politics
following major geopolitical shifts this year.
This is the 10th
annual press conference to be held by the Russian President. Similar
formats in the past lasted normally up to several hours.
The
state of the Russian economy and recent confrontation with the West are
the issues that some of the 1,200 journalists attending the event will
likely seek to tackle first.
“It is clear that the economy will
be the first thing that will be asked,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov
told Rossiya 24 TV news ahead of the big event. He said that the Kremlin
expects questions “on the situation in the economy, the situation with
the ruble, prices, measures that the leadership of Russia have in mind
to tackle these.”
Since the beginning of 2014 the ruble has
fallen almost 50 percent against the US dollar. In an effort to halt the
devaluation of the national currency the Central Bank has raised its
key interest rate to 17 percent, a measure that was not enough to
effectively stop the volatility.
At the same time, the price of
food products in retail chains in the past year in Russia have risen by
up to 25 percent and it is feared that in the first months of 2015
prices could rise even further.
Putin will also likely discuss
the tense geopolitical situation that has been shaped following the
Ukrainian turmoil and civil war and Crimea’s referendum to join Russia.
Peskov called 2014 an “unusual” year in terms of “a paradigm shift in
the international system,” something that the Russian president plans to
elaborate on even further.
The hostilities in Ukraine are
expected to remain one of the main topics of discussions as a ceasefire
in Donbass announced by Kiev last week is barely holding up. Meanwhile,
accusing Moscow of “aggression” in Ukraine, NATO countries have not only
slapped Russia with economic sanctions, but also stepped up the
military presence on Russian borders.
The biggest question of all is how Russia will react if further sanctions are introduced by the US and the EU.
In
preparation for the Q&A session, Putin has been actively seeking
expert opinion from a number of government ministers, analysts and
advisers. Peskov says, that the Russian leader is prepared for any
possible question.
“The press conference is always a place where
the president can be asked any questions,” he said, highlighting that
the president will answer uncensored questions, summing up the events of
the outgoing year.
The live Q&A press conference was first
held in 2001 and hosted over 500 journalists. Since then it continued
annually until 2008, when Putin became Russia’s prime minister. It was
reintroduced in 2012 after Putin was re-elected president.
In
his previous key public address Putin made a strong stance against
US-led attempts by the West to weaken Russia during his State of the
Nation address to the Federal Assembly earlier in December. - RT. WATCH: LIVE - Putin Q&A marathon 2014.
December 18, 2014 - SPACE -
The Sun’s energy output and Solar Irradiance do affect our planet's
weather in repeating cycles, and through 400 years of sunspot
observation, it seems we are starting to repeat a cold period of either
the 1830’s (Dalton Minimum) or 1650’s (Maunder Minimum) era.
On December 15th in sunspot group 2239 an invisible sunspot appeared
with negative polarity which can only be explained if the area was at
1500 Gauss or weaker. This indicates the plasma field is very weak and
that the sun is going into a hibernation phase.
Within a few years time the magnetic field will be to weak to support any Sunspots on the face of the Sun.
WATCH: Is the Sun Starting to Hibernate?
Solar
Cycle 24 has an initial low peak followed by a higher secondary peak,
the only other two solar cycles to follow this trend were SC 5 and SC
12, which both ushered in a cold era.
This does not include solar cycles (-11 to -1) which preceded the official start of counting but date back to 1600.
WATCH:
Secondary Solar High Peak Means a Repeat 1810 Cooling Pattern.
What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano actually erupted?
December 18, 2014 - UNITED STATES
- If the supervolcano underneath Yellowstone National Park ever had
another massive eruption, it could spew ash for thousands of miles
across the United States, damaging buildings, smothering crops, and
shutting down power plants. It'd be a huge disaster.
A super-eruption would be very bad - though also pretty unlikely
But that doesn't mean we should all start freaking out. The odds of that happening are thankfully pretty low. The Yellowstone supervolcano - thousands of times more powerful than a regular volcano-
has only had three truly enormous eruptions in history. One occurred
2.1 million years ago, one 1.3 million years ago, and one 664,000 years
ago.
And despite what you sometimes hear in the press, there's no indication that we're due for another "super-eruption" anytime soon. In fact, it's even possible that Yellowstone might never have an eruption that large again.
Even so, the Yellowstone supervolcano remains an endless source of
apocalyptic fascination - and it's not hard to see why. In September
2014, a team of scientists published a paper in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems exploring what a Yellowstone super-eruption might actually look like.
Among other things, they found the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado in three feet of harmful volcanic ash
- a mix of splintered rock and glass - and blanket the Midwest. That
much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts
of electrical equipment: Ash, ash, everywhere
An example of the possible distribution of ash from a month-long Yellowstone supereruption.
When I called up one of the study's co-authors, Jacob Lowenstern of the US Geological Survey, he stressed that the paper was not any
sort of prediction of the future. "Even if Yellowstone did erupt again,
you probably wouldn't get that worst-case scenario," he says. "What's
much, much more common are small eruptions - that's a point that often
gets ignored in the press." (And even those small eruptions are very
rare.)
Lowenstern is the Scientist-In-Charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
in Menlo Park, California. So I talked to him further about what we
actually know about the Yellowstone supervolcano, what its eruptions
might look like, and why the odds of disaster are low.
Lurking beneath Yellowstone National Park is a reservoir of hot magma five miles deep, fed by a gigantic plume of molten rock welling up from hundreds of miles below. That heat is responsible for many of the park's famous geysers and hot springs. And as magma rises up into the chamber and cools, the ground above periodically rises and falls.
The vast, vast majority of Yellowstone eruptions are small
On rare occasions throughout history, that magma chamber has erupted.
The vast, vast majority of those eruptions in Yellowstone have been
smaller lava flows - with the last occurring at Pitchstone Plateau some 70,000 years ago.
But the reason why Yellowstone gets so much attention is the remote possibility of catastrophic "super-eruptions." A super-eruption is anything that measures magnitude 8 or more on the Volcano Explosivity Index,
in which at least 1,000 cubic kilometers (or 240 cubic miles) of
material gets ejected. That's enough to bury Texas five feet deep.
These super-eruptions are thousands of times more powerful than even the biggest eruptions we're used to. Here's a chart from USGS comparing the Yellowstone super-eruptions with the Mt. St. Helens eruption of 1980. The difference is staggering:
Yellowstone
has had three of these really massive eruptions in its history - 2.1
million years ago, 1.3 million years ago, and 664,000 years ago. The
last of those, at Yellowstone Lava Creek, ejected so much material from
below that it left a 34-mile-by-50-mile depression in the ground - what
we see today as the Yellowstone Caldera:
It's worth noting that Yellowstone is hardly the only supervolcano out there - geologists have found evidence of at least 47 super-eruptions in Earth's history. The most recent occurred in New Zealand's Lake Taupo some 26,000 years ago.
More dramatically, there was the gargantuan Toba eruption 74,000 years
ago, caused by shifting tectonic plates. That triggered a dramatic 6- to
10-year global winter and (according to some) may have nearly wiped out the nascent human race.
On average, the Earth has seen roughly one super-eruption every 100,000 years, although that's not an ironclad law.
So what would a Yellowstone eruption look like?
Let's reiterate that the odds of any sort of Yellowstone eruption, big or small, are very low. But if we're speaking hypothetically...
The most likely eruption scenario in Yellowstone is a smaller event that produced lava flows (similar to what's happening at Iceland's Bárðarbunga right now)
and possible a typical volcanic explosion. This would likely be
precipitated by a swarm of earthquakes in a specific region of the park
as the magma made its way to the surface.
A super-eruption is capable of sending ash many thousands of miles
Now, in the unlikely event of a much bigger super-eruption, the warning
signs would be much bigger. "We'd likely first see intense seismic
activity across the entire park," Lowenstern says. It could take weeks
or months for those earthquakes to break up the rocks above the magma
before an eruption.
And what if we did get a super-eruption -
an event that was 1,000 times more powerful than a regular volcanic
eruption, ejected at least 240 cubic miles of material, and lasted weeks
or months? The lava flows themselves would be contained within a
relatively small radius within the park - say, 40 miles or so. In fact,
only about one-third of the material would actually make it up into the
atmosphere.
The main damage would come from volcanic ash - a
combination of splintered rock and glass - that was ejected miles into
the air and scattered around the country. In their new paper,
Lowenstern and his colleagues looked at both historical ash deposits
and advanced modeling to conclude that an eruption would create an
umbrella cloud, expanding even in all directions. (This was actually a surprising finding.)
A super-eruption could conceivably bury the northern Rockies in three
feet of ash - devastating large swaths of Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado,
Montana, and Utah. Meanwhile, the Midwest would get a few inches of ash,
while both coasts would see even smaller amounts. The exact
distribution would depend on the time of year and weather patterns: Modeling the spread of ash from a Yellowstone super-eruption
Any of those scenarios would be terrible news. That much volcanic ash is capable of killing people, plants, and animals and crushing buildings.
Even a few inches of ash (which is what much of the country can get)
can destroy farms, clog roadways, cause serious respiratory problems,
block sewer lines, and even short out transformers. Air travel would
have to shut down across much of North America.
An eruption that big would also cool the planet temporarily
A volcanic eruption that big would also have major effects on the
global climate. Volcanoes can emit sulfur aerosols that reflect sunlight
back into the atmosphere cool the climate. These particles are
short-lived in the atmosphere, so the effect is only temporary, but it
can still be dramatic.
When Pinatubo erupted in 1991, it cooled the planet by about 1°C (1.8°F) for a few years. The Tambora eruption in 1815
cooled the planet enough to damage crops around the world - possibly
leading to famines in some areas. And those were relatively tiny
eruptions compared to what a supervolcano is, in theory, capable of.
Yikes! So what are the odds of a Yellowstone super-eruption?
Very, very low. In fact, it's even possible Yellowstone might never erupt again.
'Odds are very high that Yellowstone will be eruption-free for the coming centuries'
Right now, there's no sign of a pending eruption. Yellowstone park does
continue to get earthquakes, and the ground continues to rise and fall,
but that's nothing out of the ordinary. "Yellowstone is behaving as it
has for the past 140 years," the USGS points out. "Odds are very high that Yellowstone will be eruption-free for the coming centuries."
The USGS also notes that, if you simply took the past three eruptions,
the odds of Yellowstone erupting in any given year are 0.00014 percent -
lower than the odds of getting hit by a civilization-destroying asteroid.
But even that's not a good estimate, since it's not at all certain that
Yellowstone erupts on a regular cycle or that it's "overdue" for
another eruption. In fact, there might never be a big eruption in
Yellowstone again.
"The Earth will see super-eruptions in the
future, but will they come in Yellowstone? That's not a sure thing,"
says Lowenstern. "Yellowstone's already lived a good long life. It may
not even see a fourth eruption."
Volcanoes, after all, do die
out. The magma chamber below Yellowstone is being affected by two
opposing forces - the heat welling up from below and the relative cold
from the surface. If less heat comes in from below, then the chamber
could conceivably freeze, eventually turning into a solid granite body.
It's also worth noting that the volcanic hotspot
underneath Yellowstone is slowly migrating to the northeast (or, more
accurately, the North American tectonic plate above the hotspot is
migrating southwest). You can see the migration below: The volcanic hotspot is sloooooowly moving northeast
On
a long enough time scale, the hotspot will move out from under
Yellowstone - and the Yellowstone supervolcano would, presumably, die
out. Of course, it's possible that another supervolcano could emerge
further in the northeast, but the hotspot would first have to heat up
and melt the cold crust first. And that process could take a million
years or longer.
"It's hard to get our minds around something
like a million years," Lowenstern says. "Humans are a relatively
brand-new species. But Earth's been around a very long time, and these
systems take a long time to do what they do." - VOX.
December 18, 2014 - EARTH - The following constitutes the latest reports of unusual and symbolic animal behavior, mass die-offs, beaching and stranding of mammals, and the appearance of rare creatures.
Mysterious creature with sharp claws and pointy teeth discovered on California beach
A mysterious creature with sharp claws and pointy teeth was discovered on Tuesday at a beach in Santa Barbara, after the area received some brutal storms and damage.
The brownish animal was discovered near a drain washout and has remained unidentified.Residents are baffled by its presence and have been unable to identify the species of animal or where it came from.
No other animals with a similar appearance have been found in the area.
In June of 2012, another pig-like creature was discovered in San Diego
by a 19-year-old snowboarder from Lake Tahoe. According to the teenager,
the animal was about 2 feet long with a body like a pig. The animal's
teeth were also described as "ridiculously" large.
In September, Santa Barbara also saw an invasion of an unusual sea creature known as the "by-the-wind sailor", or Velella velella with close relations to jellyfish. - Opposing Views.
Over 3,000 seals have die this year off the coast of Sweden and Denmark
Swedish authorities say some 3,000 seals have possibly died of the bird flu along the coast of Sweden and Denmark this year.
Swedish
authorities say bird flu was most likely the cause of death of some
3,000 seals off the coast of Sweden and Denmark this year.
The
Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management said on Tuesday that the
number of seals to die from the bird flu this year was much higher than
previously thought.
"So far this year about 3,000 harbor seals
have died in Swedish and Danish waters and were probably infected with
the bird flu virus H10N7," the agency said in a statement.
Figures
released in October suggested that about 700 seals had died, but
researchers say the exact number is still unknown as most of the dead
animals had sunk.
Dead seals infected with the virus were first found in April off the coast of Gothenburg, located southwest of Sweden.
The
Swedish agency said some of the seals may have developed antibodies
which have prevented all of its 10,000 seals from dying of the virus.
Last
month, authorities in the northern German region of Schleswig-Holstein
said 1,600 of the region's 13,000 seals had died from the bird flu.
Separate cases of seal deaths related to the bird flu have been also reported in the Netherlands and Norway. - Press TV.
4,000 Birds killed due to avian flu in Miyazaki, Japan
There is believed to be no risk of the virus spreading to humans
Japan has culled around 4,000 chickens following an outbreak of bird flu at a poultry farm in the southwest of the country.
Three
birds tested positive for the highly pathogenic H5 strain of avian
influenza at the site in Miyazaki prefecture, and an official said on
Tuesday that all birds were subsequently slaughtered.
The local government also asked nearby poultry farms to restrict movements of livestock, the official said.
There is believed to be no risk of the virus spreading to humans through consumption of chicken eggs or meat, he said.
Miyazaki
Prefecture is Japan's top producer of broiler chickens, raising about
28 million birds, or around 20 per cent of all chickens in Japan,
according to an official at the Agricultural Ministry.
In April, Japan confirmed its first bird flu case in livestock since 2011 at a farm in Kumamoto prefecture, southwestern Japan.
Bird
flu, or avian flu, is an infectious viral illness that spreads among
birds. In rare cases it can affect humans and two types have caused
serious concern in recent years. These are the H5N1 and H7N9 viruses.
Last
month 6,000 birds were culled at a duck breeding farm in Yorkshire
after an outbreak of avian flu. However, the strain was not deemed a
threat to humans. - Independent.
Elephants kill 3 people in Satkania, Bangladesh
The incident took place near Cox's Bazar-Chittagong highway of the area on Wednesday
Three people have been killed in an attack by elephants in Nayakhal
area of Kheochhiya union under Satkania upazila in Chittagong.
The deceased are Mahbubul Alam Talukdar, 35, son of late Abul Hossain
Talukdar of the area, Shakil, 15, son of Md Forkan of Kaliaish area of
the upazila and Shahadat Hossain, 30, son of Ameer Hossain.
Sub-inspector of Satkania police station Kazi Golam Kibria said: "The
incident took place near Cox's Bazar-Chittagong highway of the area on
Wednesday."
Some 14 elephants came down to crop field beside
the highway around 5:30pm. As the people tried to stop them from
destroying the crops, the elephants got furious and attacked the people, leaving one of them dead on the spot, the SI said.
Two injured were taken to a local clinic where the doctors declared them dead, he added.
Woman killed by fostered dogs in Flour Bluff, Texas
Investigators
revealed Tuesday that a Flour Bluff woman who was found dead in her
home Monday night appears to have been attacked by dogs she was
fostering, and that attack is what resulted in her death.
The
Nueces County Medical Examiner determined that 64-year old Rita Woodard,
known to many as Rita Ross, died from a heart attack after multiple dog
bites. One of her dogs was put to sleep after being severely injured by
the attacking dogs.
Ross, who spent much of her time rescuing
stray dogs, was discovered around 6:30 p.m. Monday. Several dogs were
found feeding on her remains.
The Medical Examiner released a
report late Tuesday stating that Ross had died from coronary artery
atherosclerosis following multiple dog bites. Corpus Christi Police
Department Commander John Houston, who supervises Animal Care Services,
said it appeared that five of the 17 dogs found at Ross's home were
responsible for the attack.
Those five will likely be euthanized.
Many of the dogs were in cages at Ross's home, and four have already
been turned over to the group For the Love of Strays for adoption. The
remaining eight dogs will be turned over to Ross's son, who lives out of
state.
WATCH: Medical Examiner says Flour Bluff woman killed by dog attack.
Ross's Facebook page was devoted to helping find forever
homes for stray dogs, and she spent much of her time helping the rescue
group. There have already been several posts of condolences from
friends, like Melissa Rizzo, who operates the rescue group.
"She is a very caring woman. Always there for the animals whether it be
day or night. She's always there," Rizzo said. "She is a very big asset
to our organization. Very dedicated woman. Every weekend, we have our
pet adoptions. She is there faithfully with the animals, working hard
with training dogs, making sure everyone gets into a loving home."
Houston said state law calls for any dogs that attack humans to be
euthanized, or a judge can order their destruction. A final
determination has yet to be made.
Rizzo said For the Love of
Strays needs money and food to take care of the dogs that were turned
over to them, and they hope to see the remaining eight dogs put up for
adoption, either through them or Animal Care Services. - KIII.
130,000 birds to be killed due to avian flu in Lower Saxony, Germany
A truck loaded with the carcasses of terminated turkeys stands in front of a turkey farm where authorities discovered the H5N8 bird flu
recently in Barssel, Germany Photo: David Hecker/Getty Images
German
authorities have ordered the cull of thousands of turkeys and chickens
days before Christmas after a new outbreak of bird flu at a poultry farm
in Lower Saxony.
All 19,000 turkeys at the
farm have already been culled, together with 12,000 more at an
adjoining farm.
The cull will also be extended to some 109,000 chickens
at two nearby farms as a precautionary measure.
The
virus has been identified as the same H5N8 strain that was found at a
duck farm in East Yorkshire last month, and in earlier outbreaks in
Germany and the Netherlands.
As
millions of Germans prepare to celebrate Christmas with meals of roast
turkey, authorities have offered assurances that there is no risk to
public health.
"H5N8 is not dangerous
to humans," a spokeswoman for the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Germany's
animal health authority, told the Telegraph. "So far there has not been
a single case of human infection worldwide."
Officials
have stressed that the strain of the virus is not the same as the H5N1
strain, which has caused human infections and deaths.
The turkeys
at the German farm where the virus was found were not yet ready for
slaughter, but officials are checking that no infected birds have
entered the food chain.
While turkey is not as synonymous with
Christmas in Germany as in the UK, it is a popular alternative to the
traditional roast goose.
Authorities are concerned that the virus
could spread quickly and have devastasting effect on the poultry
industry. Cloppenburg in Lower Saxony, where the farm outbreak was
discovered, is the heartland of German poultry farming.
The same
strain was found at another farm in November in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
state. Scientists believe it may have been transmitted to European
livestock by migratory birds.
"We've checked and there is no other
common factor between the farms where it has been found," said the
spokeswoman for the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut. - Telegraph.
Deer enters store in Charlotte, North Carolina
A dust-up between the people of Walmart and a confused deer inside a North Carolina store was caught on camera by a customer.
The deer, apparently a doe, wandered into the store Monday afternoon in
Charlotte's University City neighborhood and ended up being tackled and
pinned to the ground by a group of Walmart workers and customers.
Witness Edmond Ratcliffe captured cellphone video of the incident.
WATCH: Deer wrangled in North Tryon Walmart.
"You never know when you have seen it all... I'm in Walmart today and a
wildlife shopper decided that he needed to stop by Walmart for a
celebrity appearance," Ratcliffe posted on Facebook.
He said the deer tacklers had a "struggle, but they got him."
"It was kind of a stay out of the way situation because I know if I'm in the way, it could be trouble," he told WSOC-TV.
The deer was taken away by Animal Control officers. Its fate after leaving the store was unknown Tuesday. - UPI.
1,200 Birds found dead, 30,000 to be killed due to avian flu near Venice, Italy
This is the first outbreak of a highly pathogenic bird flu virus in Italy since September 2013. Photo: AP
Italy
has reported an outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N8 bird flu virus
on a turkey farm in the northeastern part of the country near Venice,
the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Tuesday. The
strain, which has never been detected in humans, is the same as in other
cases found in Germany, the Netherlands and Britain since early
November and which devastated bird flocks in Asia—mainly South
Korea—earlier this year.
More than 1,200 birds were found dead
from the virus at a fattening turkey farm in Porto Viro, the Paris-based
OIE reported on its website, citing the Italian health ministry. “High
mortality was reported during the last two days. Control measures will
be applied in the restriction zones established,” the ministry said in
the report. Culling on the farm of more than 30,000 birds was due to
start on Tuesday, it said. It was the first outbreak of a highly
pathogenic bird flu virus in Italy since September 2013, it said. - Livemint.
