March 19, 2016 - UNITED STATES - A dramatic swing in temperatures will bring both a taste of late spring
and then a blizzard to the central United States for the first week of
spring.
The upswing in temperatures will cause record highs to be challenged
during the first half of the new week, while the return of colder air
will set the stage for snow and blizzard conditions to sweep from the
northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest at midweek.
"As is expected in the spring, a volatile pattern is shaping up through
the new week across the central U.S.," AccuWeather Meteorologist Ed
Vallee said.
"After some chillier air this weekend, a dome of high pressure will
control the weather through midweek. This will usher in much warmer air
with some places experiencing high temperatures nearly 30-40 degrees
higher than this weekend."
Highs across most of the north-central states will trend from the 30s
and 40s on Saturday to the 60s and 70s early in the new week.
In the southern Plains, temperatures will swing from the 50s and lower
60s this weekend to the 70s and 80s. Some communities in the southern
High Plains will even flirt with or crack the 90-degree mark.
The warmth will erase the snow that recently whitened Denver and will
challenge record highs in Pueblo, Colorado; Dodge City, Kansas; Oklahoma
City; and Amarillo and Lubbock, Texas.
As quickly as the warmth makes a comeback, colder air will be advancing southward.
"A developing area of low pressure across the Plains will drag a
cold front through the central U.S. Wednesday and Thursday, stifling
the burst of warmth," Vallee said.
Along the northern fringe of the low, snow will emerge from the northern
Rockies and track to the Upper Midwest. While the snow should initially
melt, slippery travel will still unfold as the snow falls heavy enough
to overcome the strong March sun and road surfaces cool.
Gusty winds will also howl, threatening to create even more treacherous blizzard conditions.
Denver is among the communities that could see highs near 70 F fade to snow and highs in the 30s at midweek.
South of the snow, the strong winds will significantly heighten the fire danger across the southern High Plains.
"While likely not as chilly as this weekend, high temperatures to end
the week [in the south-central states] will likely be 10-20 degrees
lower than what they will be at midweek," Vallee said.
As is typical of spring, an end to the temperature roller coaster for the Plains should not come by the new weekend. - AccuWeather.
February 11, 2015 - EARTH - The following list constitutes the latest reports of high tides, heavy rainfall, flash floods, widespread flooding, sea level rise and catastrophic storms.
Jakarta Floods Force 6,000 Evacuations
The
2015 Jakarta floods continue as more heavy rain falls on the Indonesian
capital. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) of Indonesia
confirmed earlier today that 5,986 people have been forced to evacuate
their homes after floods continued to inundate wide areas of the city.
UPDATE:
Australian news agency AAP are reporting that Jakarta police say that
one person has died after being swept away by flood water in central
Jakarta.
BNPD
said 14 different relief centres have been set up for the displaced.
They said that floods have affected 307 neighbourhoods (over 100 of them
in west Jakarta) located in 97 urban villages in 33 sub-districts.
The
National Disaster Mitigation Agency report that nearly 5,000 houses
have been flooded across the city, affecting 15,517 people, many of whom
remain in their homes. It is assumed that the 5,986 people who were
evacuated were in areas where the floods had increased enough to pose a
serious threat to safety.
More Rain to Come
Indonesian
Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (Badan
Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika / BMKG) has forecast further
heavy rainfall for Jakarta and Upper Areas around the city until at
least Thursday 12 February 2015.
WATCH: Monsoon brings flooding misery to Jakarta.
With streets and ground already
saturated and river levels rising fast, more heavy rain could push
Jakarta towards a similar flood disaster to those experienced in 2007,
when 54 people died, and 2013, when 47 people died.
Rainfall Figures
Recent
rainfall figures from WMO for the Jakarta area are show below. Figures
are for a 24 hour period between 09 and 10 February 2015.
Jakarta/Soekarno-Hatta – 123 mm
Jakarta/Observatory – 278 mm
Jakarta/Tanjung Priok – 310 mm
Floods return to Bolivia - 15 Dead, Over 10,000 Homes Damaged
The floodwaters are waste deep in places and rescue services have been using dinghies to help trapped residents [EPA]
Torrential rains have returned to Bolivia and much of the country is struggling to cope with the deluge.
According
to government officials, at least 15 people have died so far this rainy
season and more than 10,000 homes have been damaged.
The heavy downpours have been going on for many weeks now.
The
floodwaters are waste deep in places and rescue services have been
using dinghies to help trapped residents out of their homes.
Seven
people died in the central region of Cochambamba, which hosts Bolivia’s
fourth largest city. They have already had 138mm of rain here this
month. The January average is 96mm.
Oscar Cabrera, the vice
minister for civil defence, explained "the situation is getting more
complicated with the growth of the rivers".
Areas to the north of La Paz have been "seriously affected" and risk further property damage.
The
city of Reyes, which is located 260km to the north of the capital,
recorded 133mm of rain in the 24 hours into Wednesday morning. That
amounts to just over half the January average of 256mm.
The 2014 rainy season was the worst in living memory, with 60 dead and 60,000 families affected.
Like this year, there were also huge losses in the agricultural sector.
However, Cabrera said there have been improvements in the country’s ability to cope with such emergencies.
Landslides and Floods in Peru after Heavy Rain
Heavy rain in Peru
over the last 3 days has caused landslides and flooding in 3 regions of
the country according to Peru’s National Civil Defense Institute,
INDECI.
Arequipa
A storm and heavy rainfall on 09 February affected at least 20 homes and inundated roads in the
districts of Sachaca and Cerro Colorado in the province of Arequipa.
Overflowing river Huallaga, San Martin, Peru, January 2015. Photo: Government of San Martin, Peru
On
08 February 2015 more heavy rain caused a landslide in the district of
Tarapoto, blocking a section of the main road between Tarapoto and
Yurimaguas.
This comes after a landslide in the same area on 01
February which killed one person and injured 3 others. Tarapoto is
largely inaccessible by road and the Peru air force have been bringing
in supplies and transporting people by plane since 02 February.
Lima
Heavy
rain caused a landslides and flooding in the districts of Lurigancho –
Chosica, Ricardo Palma and Chaclacayo around 30 km outside Lima.
WATCH: Heavy rains trigger mudslides in Peru.
The
worst affected area is Lurigancho – Chosica where the heavy rain has
destroyed six houses, displacing around 30 people. INDECI report that 96
families have been affected.
INDECI are providing food, supplies
and e technical assistance to local authorities in response actions in
areas affected by landslides caused by heavy rains.
Evros Floods, Greece – 30,000 Hectares of Farmland Underwater
Map of the Evros / Maritsa River, Europe. Image: WikiMedia, licensed under Creative Commons
Flooding
continues to affect the regional unit of Evros in the region of East
Macedonia and Thrace, north-eastern Greece, due to the overflowing of
the Evros (Maritsa) river. Flood first struck in the area on 01 February 2015, when heavy rain resulted in flooding and evacuations in Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Macedonia and later in Turkey.
Evacuations are still in effect and as yet, flood waters haven’t
receded enough for many of those displaced to be able to return home.
Damage to Agriculture
Local
media are reporting that between 20,000 and 30,000 hectares (75 to 115
square miles) of farm land remains under water, and the flooding in
Evros is likely to have a devastating effect on the local rural economy.
Much
of this region depends on farming for its income. Although levels of
the Evros river may be falling, it is expected that it will take much
longer for flood water to drain from farm land.
The president of the Union of Agricultural Cooperatives Ebro Lazarus Kitsikidis told the Greek news site in.gr
that there is now a fear that farmers will miss as much as 80% of the
growing season. He said that it could take another month for the farm
land to fully drain and therefore most of the flooded fieldswill not be ablebe sown in time for the forthcoming growing season.
File photo: Floods in Evros, 2010. Photo credit: Joanna
Severe Weather Warnings
Severe
weather conditions, including heavy snowfall and rainfall and strong
winds, are forecast for most areas of the country on 9 February and
Greece’s Meteorological Service has issued Red and Orange Alerts.
The
central US is experiencing flooding more often now than it was 50 years
ago, new research shows. The study across 14 states finds rivers over
much of the region are breaching their banks more frequently, leading to
a greater number of floods.
The researchers attribute the increase in flooding to rising temperatures in the region and more days with heavy rainfall.
Flooded houses Cedar Rapids 2008. Photo: U.S. Geological Survey
Serious Flooding
In recent decades, the central US has been hit by a number of serious and widespread floods. Flooding in the spring of 1993 and summer of 2008 affected as many as ten states, for example. The disaster saw hundreds of counties declared Presidential Disaster Areas, giving them access to emergency relief funding.
Scientists
have since been trying to work out whether floods are getting worse or
if what we’re seeing in this part of the US is down to natural
variability.
To investigate changes in river flooding, scientists
look at historical records of river flow and the maximum amount of water
they can hold before overflowing. The flow, or ‘discharge’, of a river
is measured by instruments at different points along its course. Studies
in the past have found the maximum flow through rivers hasn’t changed
much over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. But a new
study, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that rivers are hitting these high flows more often.
More Frequent Peaks
The researchers analysed records of river flows from 774 instrument stations across the central US, including Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan.
They counted how many times each river hit a point where there was so
much water flowing through it that it was likely to cause a flood.
Map showing the 774 US Geological Survey stations used in this study. Source: Mallakpour & Villarini (2015)
A
third of river stations (34 per cent) are passing their critical
flooding thresholds more often now than they were 50 years ago, the
study finds. Nine per cent of stations are seeing flooding occur less
often. The results for the other stations aren’t statistically
significant, which means the scientists can’t be sure the trend hasn’t
happened by chance.
Across the region as a whole, the trend is towards more frequent flooding, the paper concludes:
“Overall,
our analysis reveals that the largest flood peaks have not been
strongly increasing in this broad belt of the central US, but, rather,
the region has been experiencing a greater number of flood events.”
Map
showing frequency of annual flooding from 1962 to 2011. Blue and red
triangles show increases and decreases, respectively.
Grey areas show
locations that did not experience a statistically significant change.
Source: Mallakpour & Villarini (2015)
The researchers found very similar results when they analysed a subset
of the record, which includes 68 ‘pristine’ locations. These are
stations away from urban development, reservoirs or lakes, which might
affect how quickly rainwater finds its way into streams and rivers.
Changing Rainfall Patterns
What’s
causing the floods to occur more often? One factor is changing rainfall
patterns, the researchers say. Using the same 14 US states as before,
the researchers studied how rainfall has changed over the last 50 years.
The number of days with heavy rainfall has gone up over much of the
region, as the blue shading in the map below shows.
Map
showing frequency of annual heavy rainfall days from 1962 to 2011. Blue
and red areas show increases and decreases, respectively. Grey areas
show
locations that did not experience a statistically significant
change. Source: Mallakpour & Villarini (2015)
Rising
temperatures are also contributing to more frequent flood events, says
lead author Dr Gabriele Villarini, from the University of Iowa. This is
occurring as warmer springs cause more snowmelt to flow into swelling
rivers. Spring temperatures have risen over much of the central US in
the last 60 years, the paper explains.
Spring snowmelt is a
particular problem for flooding in the northern part of the central US,
Villarini says, which tends to receive more snow in the winter.
Map
showing seasonal temperature from 1948 to 2011. Blue and red areas show
increases and decreases, respectively. Grey areas show locations that
did not
experience a statistically significant change. Source:
Mallakpour & Villarini (2015)
Human Activity
The
paper doesn’t tackle the question of whether the increase in river
flooding in the central US is being caused by human activity. But an
increase in heavy rainfall fits in with what scientists expect as the Earth warms up.
As
temperatures rise, basic physics says this will cause an increase in
moisture in the atmosphere, so when it rains, it falls in heavier
bursts. A recent study found the probability of seeing an extremely wet
winter like the UK did last year is 25 per cent higher than it was before humans started influencing the climate, for example.
Mallakpour,
I. and Villarini, G. (2015) The changing nature of flooding across the
central United States, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2516
The above report is by Robert McSweeney for Carbon Brief and originally appeared here.
