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| What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano actually erupted? |
December 18, 2014 - UNITED STATES
- If the supervolcano underneath Yellowstone National Park ever had
another massive eruption, it could spew ash for thousands of miles
across the United States, damaging buildings, smothering crops, and
shutting down power plants. It'd be a huge disaster.
A super-eruption would be very bad - though also pretty unlikely
But that doesn't mean we should all start freaking out. The odds of that happening are thankfully pretty low.
The Yellowstone supervolcano - thousands of times more powerful than a regular volcano -
has only had three truly enormous eruptions in history. One occurred
2.1 million years ago, one 1.3 million years ago, and one 664,000 years
ago.
And despite what you sometimes hear in the press, there's
no indication that we're due for another "super-eruption" anytime soon. In fact, it's even possible that Yellowstone might
never have an eruption that large again.
Even so, the Yellowstone supervolcano remains an endless source of
apocalyptic fascination - and it's not hard to see why. In September
2014, a team of scientists
published a paper in
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems exploring what a Yellowstone super-eruption might actually look like.
Among other things, they found the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado in three feet of harmful volcanic ash
- a mix of splintered rock and glass - and blanket the Midwest. That
much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts
of electrical equipment:
Ash, ash, everywhere
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| An example of the possible distribution of ash from a month-long Yellowstone supereruption. © US Geological Survey |
An example of the possible distribution of ash from a month-long Yellowstone supereruption.
When I called up one of the study's co-authors, Jacob Lowenstern of the US Geological Survey, he stressed that the paper was
not any
sort of prediction of the future. "Even if Yellowstone did erupt again,
you probably wouldn't get that worst-case scenario," he says. "What's
much, much more common are small eruptions - that's a point that often
gets ignored in the press." (And even those small eruptions are very
rare.)
Lowenstern is the Scientist-In-Charge of the
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
in Menlo Park, California. So I talked to him further about what we
actually know about the Yellowstone supervolcano, what its eruptions
might look like, and why the odds of disaster are low.
What is the Yellowstone supervolcano?
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| © National Park Service |
Lurking beneath Yellowstone National Park is
a reservoir of hot magma five miles deep, fed by a gigantic plume of molten rock welling up from hundreds of miles below. That heat
is responsible for many of the park's famous geysers and hot springs. And as magma rises up into the chamber and cools, the ground above
periodically rises and falls.
The vast, vast majority of Yellowstone eruptions are small
On rare occasions throughout history, that magma chamber has erupted.
The vast, vast majority of those eruptions in Yellowstone have been
smaller lava flows - with the last occurring at
Pitchstone Plateau some 70,000 years ago.
But the reason why Yellowstone gets so much attention is the remote possibility of catastrophic "super-eruptions." A
super-eruption is anything that measures magnitude 8 or more on the
Volcano Explosivity Index,
in which at least 1,000 cubic kilometers (or 240 cubic miles) of
material gets ejected. That's enough to bury Texas five feet deep.
These super-eruptions are thousands of times more powerful than even the biggest eruptions we're used to. Here's
a chart from USGS comparing the Yellowstone super-eruptions with the Mt. St. Helens eruption of 1980. The difference is staggering:
Super-eruptions vs ordinary eruptions
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| © (US Geological Survey) |
Yellowstone
has had three of these really massive eruptions in its history - 2.1
million years ago, 1.3 million years ago, and 664,000 years ago. The
last of those, at Yellowstone Lava Creek, ejected so much material from
below that it left a 34-mile-by-50-mile depression in the ground - what
we see today as the Yellowstone Caldera:
Location of past Yellowstone super-eruptions
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| © National Park Service |
It's worth noting that Yellowstone is hardly the only supervolcano out there - geologists have found evidence of
at least 47 super-eruptions in Earth's history. The most recent occurred in New Zealand's
Lake Taupo some 26,000 years ago.
More dramatically, there was the gargantuan Toba eruption 74,000 years
ago, caused by shifting tectonic plates. That triggered a dramatic 6- to
10-year global winter and (according to some) may have
nearly wiped out the nascent human race.
On average, the Earth has seen roughly one super-eruption every 100,000 years, although that's not an ironclad law.
So what would a Yellowstone eruption look like?
Let's reiterate that the odds of any sort of Yellowstone eruption, big or small, are
very low. But if we're speaking hypothetically...
The most likely eruption scenario in Yellowstone is a smaller event that produced lava flows (similar to what's happening
at Iceland's Bárðarbunga right now)
and possible a typical volcanic explosion. This would likely be
precipitated by a swarm of earthquakes in a specific region of the park
as the magma made its way to the surface.
A super-eruption is capable of sending ash many thousands of miles
Now, in the unlikely event of a much bigger super-eruption, the warning
signs would be much bigger. "We'd likely first see intense seismic
activity across the entire park," Lowenstern says. It could take weeks
or months for those earthquakes to break up the rocks above the magma
before an eruption.
And what if we did get a super-eruption -
an event that was 1,000 times more powerful than a regular volcanic
eruption, ejected at least 240 cubic miles of material, and lasted weeks
or months? The lava flows themselves would be contained within a
relatively small radius within the park - say, 40 miles or so. In fact,
only about one-third of the material would actually make it up into the
atmosphere.
The main damage would come from volcanic ash - a
combination of splintered rock and glass - that was ejected miles into
the air and scattered around the country. In
their new paper,
Lowenstern and his colleagues looked at both historical ash deposits
and advanced modeling to conclude that an eruption would create an
umbrella cloud, expanding even in all directions. (This was actually
a surprising finding.)
A super-eruption could conceivably bury the northern Rockies in three
feet of ash - devastating large swaths of Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado,
Montana, and Utah. Meanwhile, the Midwest would get a few inches of ash,
while both coasts would see even smaller amounts. The exact
distribution would depend on the time of year and weather patterns:
Modeling the spread of ash from a Yellowstone super-eruption
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| © Mastin et al 2014 |
Any of those scenarios would be terrible news. That much volcanic ash is capable of killing people, plants, and animals and crushing buildings.
Even a few inches of ash (which is what much of the country can get)
can destroy farms, clog roadways, cause serious respiratory problems,
block sewer lines, and even short out transformers. Air travel would
have to shut down across much of North America.
An eruption that big would also cool the planet temporarily
A volcanic eruption that big would also have major effects on the
global climate. Volcanoes can emit sulfur aerosols that reflect sunlight
back into the atmosphere cool the climate. These particles are
short-lived in the atmosphere, so the effect is only temporary, but it
can still be dramatic.
When Pinatubo erupted in 1991,
it cooled the planet by about 1°C (1.8°F) for a few years. The
Tambora eruption in 1815
cooled the planet enough to damage crops around the world - possibly
leading to famines in some areas. And those were relatively tiny
eruptions compared to what a supervolcano is, in theory, capable of.
Yikes! So what are the odds of a Yellowstone super-eruption?
Very, very low. In fact, it's even possible Yellowstone might never erupt again.
'Odds are very high that Yellowstone will be eruption-free for the coming centuries'
Right now, there's no sign of a pending eruption. Yellowstone park does
continue to get earthquakes, and the ground continues to rise and fall,
but that's nothing out of the ordinary. "Yellowstone is behaving as it
has for the past 140 years," the USGS
points out. "Odds are very high that Yellowstone will be eruption-free for the coming centuries."
The USGS also notes that, if you simply took the past three eruptions,
the odds of Yellowstone erupting in any given year are 0.00014 percent -
lower than the odds of getting hit by
a civilization-destroying asteroid.
But even that's not a good estimate, since it's not at all certain that
Yellowstone erupts on a regular cycle or that it's "overdue" for
another eruption. In fact, there might never be a big eruption in
Yellowstone again.
"The Earth will see super-eruptions in the
future, but will they come in Yellowstone? That's not a sure thing,"
says Lowenstern. "Yellowstone's already lived a good long life. It may
not even see a fourth eruption."
Volcanoes, after all, do die
out. The magma chamber below Yellowstone is being affected by two
opposing forces - the heat welling up from below and the relative cold
from the surface. If less heat comes in from below, then the chamber
could conceivably freeze, eventually turning into a solid granite body.
It's also worth noting that
the volcanic hotspot
underneath Yellowstone is slowly migrating to the northeast (or, more
accurately, the North American tectonic plate above the hotspot is
migrating southwest). You can see the migration below:
The volcanic hotspot is sloooooowly moving northeast
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| © USGS |
On
a long enough time scale, the hotspot will move out from under
Yellowstone - and the Yellowstone supervolcano would, presumably, die
out. Of course, it's possible that another supervolcano could emerge
further in the northeast, but the hotspot would first have to heat up
and melt the cold crust first. And that process could take a million
years or longer.
"It's hard to get our minds around something
like a million years," Lowenstern says. "Humans are a relatively
brand-new species. But Earth's been around a very long time, and these
systems take a long time to do what they do." -
VOX.