February 12, 2016 - SUN - It has been a couple of months since WUWT has checked in on the progress
of solar cycle 24. Right now, the sun is in “cue ball” mode, with no
large visible sunspots as seen above in the most recent Solar Dynamics
Observatory (SDO) photo.
Since there is a new analysis
out at Pierre Gosselin’s website by Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz
Vahrenholt, I thought it would be a good time to do an update. They
write:
[The sun was] rather quiet in January. The determined solar sunspot
number (SSN) was 56.6, which is 71% of the mean this far into the
period, calculated using the 23 previously measured solar cycles.
Figure 1: Plot of the monthly sunspot number so far for the current
cycle (red line) compared to the mean solar cycle (blue line) and the
similar solar cycle no. 5 (black).
The earlier peak occurring at month number 35 (fall 2011) signaled the
time of the SSN maximum at the sun’s northern hemisphere. The later
peaks occurring at about month no. 68 (mid 2014) are the SSN maximum for
the sun’s southern hemisphere.
They also have a prediction, read about it here. Full report (in German) here.
As you can see from the plots in Figure 1, the current level of
activity of solar cycle 24 seems close to that of solar cycle number 5,
which occurred beginning in May 1798 and ending in December 1810 (thus
falling within the Dalton Minimum).
The
maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged
over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 49.2, in
February 1805 (the second lowest of any cycle to date, as a result of
being part of the Dalton Minimum), and the minimum was zero.(ref:
Wikipedia)
Below is what the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has offered
this month. Sunspot count continues below the red prediction line. 10.7
cm radio flux is about at the prediction level, and the Ap geomagnetic
index continues to rise, suggesting that the solar magnetic dynamo might
be a bit more active, but that activity isn’t translating into
increased sunspots or radio flux.
February 25, 2015 - EARTH -
The following constitutes several of the latest reports on record
snowfall, record low temperatures and the effects on our infrastructure.
With no remarkable evidence of global warming over the last decade, it
seems that planet Earth has cross the climate change threshold and is
now heading towards a period of extreme global cooling.
Record-breaking cold temperatures threaten harvests in US
Ice and oranges.
Winter's
grasp doesn't seem to be letting up, as there are wind chill and freeze
warnings throughout the state, says this video.
Freezing
temperatures in Florida are threatening orange crops while apples from
Washington state are left to rot as dock workers are on strike.
WATCH: Rotting apples and oranges threaten U.S. fruit industry.
Dangerous Cold Gripping Eastern US This Week to Ease in March
Additional
waves of frigid air will continue to flow southward out of Canada and
into the central and eastern United States this week, but there are
indications the worst of the cold will ease up next week in the East.
More
than 175 million people from the Upper Midwest to the interior South
and the Northeast will have to endure more extreme cold conditions this
week.
Temperatures on one to several nights will dip below zero F from the Dakotas, Minnesota and Michigan to Virginia, New York and Maine.
While the air masses moving through this week are not quite as extreme as that of last week, daily record low temperatures will continue to be challenged. Once again, record lows dating as far back as the late 1800s will be on the table.
As if the air wasn't cold enough, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will spend a considerable time below zero F from the northern Plains to the Northeast. The conditions will raise a new round of threats from frostbite and hypothermia for those spending time outdoors and not properly dressed.
The weather pattern into the weekend will mean more dead car batteries, frozen water lines and water main breaks. Deliveries of coal, fuel oil and propane will keep up a brisk pace as costs from heating homes and businesses take a bigger and bigger bite out of the budget.
With the ongoing or renewed cold for the last week of February, the month may land among the coldest on record from around the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
Multiple locations including Boston, New York City, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Chicago are likely to finish the month within the top three coldest Februaries on record. In some cases, such as Buffalo, New York, temperatures for the remainder of the month may deliver the coldest February on record and could rank as the one of the coldest months ever.
With the exception of nuisance episodes of spotty light snow and flurries, much of the northern states will generally be free of major storms through the week.
There is a chance that moisture moves close enough to part of the mid-Atlantic to bring a period of snow Thursday or Thursday night. Extreme Cold to Ease in March
There is finally some good news for the millions of people who have had enough of the cold.
According
to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, "Indications
are the pattern will change next week so that the cold is much less
severe from the Midwest to the Northeast."
"Temperatures from the Midwest to the Northeast will still average below normal, but they will be much less extreme," Anderson said.
Rather than temperatures averaging 20-30 degrees F below normal, temperatures may average 10 F or less below normal. During March, normal temperatures rise by a degree every few days.
Parts of the South, including Atlanta, Birmingham, Alabama, and Charlotte, North Carolina, may break out into some warm early spring weather next week. Highs may in the 60s on a few occasions.
"The pattern shift will allow frigid air to take aim more at the northern Rockies," Anderson said. As a byproduct of the weather pattern change, a series of storms may track from the Southwest states to the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Valley. The stormy pattern may translate to wintry mix events that transition to rain for the Ohio Valley and Northeast. - AccuWeather.
100+ Year Temperature Records Dropping Like Flies & 10.7cm Flux Down 30%
In
Baltimore, Maryland, a low temperature of 1F broke the record low for
coldest morning recorded at the Thurgood Marshall Baltimore
Washington-International Airport.
In Louisville, Kentucky,
temperatures dropped to -6F, breaking the old record low of 0F.
Meanwhile, Richmond Kentucky bottomed out at a frigid -32F.
In
North Carolina, a record low temperature was set at Charlotte where the
overnight temperature bottomed out at 7F breaking the old record of 13F
in 1896. In Asheville, temperatures dropped to just 4F breaking the old
record of 10F in 1979. Temperature records for Asheville extend back to
1876.
Several records were also broken in Georgia, Macon set a
new record low when the temperature dropped to 18F, beating the previous
record of 21F set in 1958. Athens broke a new record low, too dropping
to 14F and beating the old record of 18F set in 1958/1928.
On
Friday, the city tied a 116-year-old record with a temperature of -28.9
C. The frigid temperature matched a record set back on Feb. 13, 1899.
Yesterday, Feb 20, Buffalo set a new record low maximum of 1°F, breaking the old record low max of 6°F, set in 1950.
So
yet again, the sun has fallen absolutely silent, and has been so for
three days. This comes at the presumed height of the current solar
maximum in April ’14. We can see that the F10.7cm flux – a measure of UV
radiation – is down approximately 30% from 3 months ago.
NASA’s own website (http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/pre...)
states that the F10.7 flux is “an important indicator of solar activity
because it tends to follow the changes in the solar ultraviolet that
influence the Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere.” Decreasing UV
radiation, lower solar winds, allow for more cosmic radiation from
interstellar space to interact with the upper atmosphere and leads to
greater cloud formation. More clouds means more sunlight refracted
before hitting the surface of the planet, which leads to more cooling
effects.
So isn’t it interesting that the coldest month on
record across a large portion of the eastern CONUS comes at the same
time and we may be setting up for a cooler-than-normal spring?
A
major pileup involving more than two dozen vehicles about 10 miles west
of Amarillo on eastbound Interstate 40 snarled traffic for hours
Monday, but crews finally cleared the massive wreck Monday afternoon,
the Texas Department of Public Safety reported.
By about 2 p.m.,
New Mexico authorities began allowing eastbound I-40 traffic into Texas
because crews had nearly cleared the wreck near Arnot Road.
The wreck was reported shortly before noon Monday.
According to
the Office of Emergency Management, the DPS and the Potter County
Sheriff’s Office worked a major accident at I-40 and Arnot Road in the
eastbound lanes of I-40. At least 25 vehicles, including multiple
tractor-trailers, were involved, and eastbound I-40 traffic was closed
for more than an hour at the New Mexico state line, authorities said.
Trooper Chris Ray said the chain-reaction accident occurred when a few vehicles lost control amid snowy, low-visibility conditions.
“Originally a couple vehicles collided, then it ended up being four vehicles, then it ended up being eight vehicles. And the final tally we ended up with 29 units involved in this, a kind of chain reaction,” Ray said. “Driving too fast and low visibility. That’s what happened.”
Two people were taken to a hospital with what were thought to be minor injuries.
Multiple wrecks were also reported on U.S. Highway 60 in Randall County, though none were considered major, Ray said.
Between midnight Sunday to 4 p.m. Monday, Amarillo police responded to 50 wrecks, but no major serious injuries were reported, Cpl. Jerry Neufeld said.Texas Department of of Transportation spokesman Paul Braun said how highway crews will prepare for another storm expected Thursday depends on the nature of the snow, but he said TxDOT will be ready and will pre-treat potentially hazardous areas if possible. - Amarillo.
Drone film of Niagara Falls frozen over
The
ice encasing the Niagara Falls, which has drawn in visitors from all
over, isn't expected to melt entirely until May. Drone footage captures
this rare and beautiful occurrence.
Ice-breaking tug boats operating on the Delaware River
Ice-breaker on the Delaware river
The icy weather doesn't just cause trouble for the roads but for the waterways as well.
Every day when ice starts forming, the crew of the Coast Guard icebreaker Capstan casts off the lines and head out into the Delaware River - never knowing what they'll find out there.
"We look forward to the winter every year. This is what the boat is
built for, this is what we are out here to do," said US Coast Guard BM1
Matt Bailey.
The Capstan is one of two ice breakers working 140 miles of the Delaware River.
The ice breaker was built in 1961 and can still handle ice up to 18 inches thick.
WATCH: Ice-breaking boats ply the Delaware River.
"Usually once it gets above two feet we usually call in a bigger boat,
such as a 175 footer, but we can handle everything up to about two
feet," said SCBM Christopher Stover, US Coast Guard.
On Wednesday, the ice ranged from paper thin to eight inches thick.
If the river freezes over, it can bring shipping commerce to a standstill.
The big tankers and freighters can handle the ice but smaller vessels like flat fronted barges can easily get stuck.
However more important than commerce is safety.
"What we focus on, first and foremost, is search and rescue and coastal
security of all the vessels out on the water, then we look into vessels
that are in urgent situations that may need our assistance breaking out
of the ice,: said SCBM Stover.
A buoy, discovered 165 yards out of position, is an example of a safety issue.
That's because the ice grabbed ahold of it and dragged it with the tide.
A large ship could have gone aground if Capstan hadn't sent out notice of the wayward buoy.
On Wednesday, the Capstan cleared the shipping channel from Philadelphia to Trenton and they'll do it all again on Thursday. - 6ABC.
Quito Hail Deluge & Ship Rescued from Antarctic Summer Ice
Friday,
23 January 2015 Blue Algae Eerie fluorescent blue patches of water
glimmering off Hong Kong's seashore are magnificent, but disturbing and
potentially toxic, marine biologists say. The glow is an indicator of a
harmful algal bloom created by something called Noctiluca scintillans,
nicknamed Sea Sparkle. http://www.thebigwobble.org/2015_01_0...
Chandigarh:
Wheat crop in various parts of Punjab have been affected because of
rains accompanied by hailstorm in the last few days, though the state
agriculture department is expecting bumper output this Rabi marketing
season. However, the quantum of damage to the winter crop was still to
be ascertained, as per latest report prepared by Punjab Agriculture
department. http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india...
Algae
Egg balls 20 September 2014 Green spheres being something from another
planet, scientists explained they were a type of sponge-like seaweed
that forms egg shapes possibly to protect.themselves from predators.
It's the second unusual natural spectacle to hit Sydney's Beaches in a
matter of weeks. Last month, the waves at Manly Beach were lit up a
fluorescent blue for three nights by 'agitated' phytoplankton,
apparently signalling the start of Spring. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/artic...
Disruptive Snow to Slow Travel From Mississippi to Virginia
Cold air from Canada and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will clash to bring a significant winter storm with accumulating snow and an icy mix in a large part of the South.
While much of the Deep South will expect rain into Thursday, a corridor of snow will set up along the northern periphery of the precipitation, reaching from northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas to the Carolinas and Virginia.
As much as 6 inches of snow fell on parts of northeastern Texas during Wednesday.
Travel delays and slippery roads will spread eastward near and north of Interstate-20 affecting Columbus and Greenville, Mississippi; Huntsville and Birmingham, Alabama; Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Atlanta into Wednesday night.
The biggest impacts will be felt by travelers taking to the roads as snow, sleet and freezing rain are forecast to cause paved surfaces to become slick.
Colder conditions at night can cause wet surfaces to freeze, especially on the back roads, said AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait.
Significant flight delays and cancellations are possible through Thursday morning at the Atlanta International Airport, which is one of the busiest airports in the nation.
In part of the South, the snow will be heavy, wet and clinging.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "The wet snow has the potential to bring down tree limbs and cause power outages as a result."
The greatest amount of snow from the storm will be felt in the southern Appalachian Mountains, across much of North Carolina and southern Virginia through Thursday morning.
The highest accumulations are expected over the mountains, but some spots in North Carolina and southern Virginia could pick up over 6 inches.
According to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, "The snow will come down at the rate of an inch an hour in parts of the south Wednesday night, which can quickly cover roads and catch motorists off guard."
The Thursday commute could be slow and difficult in the wake of the storm across eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia, southern Virginia and the Carolinas due to snow-covered roads.
People from the northern Atlanta suburbs, northward to near Nashville, eastward to Greenville and Anderson, South Carolina; Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Raleigh and Fayetteville, North Carolina; and Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia; will be facing a significant winter storm.
Anyone that has to drive in this area Wednesday night into Thursday morning should allow ample time to reach their destination to account for lower travel speeds, accidents and lane closures.
Intermittent snow will extend into northern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula by Thursday morning. A small accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, D.C., to Dover, Delaware, and Atlantic City, New Jersey.
Some natural melting of the snow on the roads will occur during Thursday midday and afternoon, which may allow highway travel to improve somewhat, once roads are plowed.
Surfaces that remain wet and slushy into Thursday evening will become icy as temperatures rapidly fall below freezing.
Dry
weather will be the theme across the Southeast on Friday with chilly
air lingering around in the wake of the storm to close out the week. - AccuWeather.
Lobster boats trapped by ice in New England harbors
The
bitter cold weather is taking a toll on New England's lobster industry
which is losing a significant amount of money this winter.
Frozen waters in Maine have left lobstermen stuck on the mainland again this week.
Stuck.
Lobster boats stuck in ice.
The boats are sitting frozen and stuck and ice is preventing many lobstermen from leaving the harbor.
Some say it's been at least three weeks since they have been able to get out on the waterand that the deep freeze is really starting to hurt their very livelihoods. - MYFOXDC.
70-Vehicle Pileup in Snowy Maine Leaves at Least 17 Injured
More than 70 vehicles got tangled up in a series of chain-reaction pileups Wednesday along a snowy stretch of Interstate 95 in Maine, injuring at least 17 people, state police said.
The pileups in Etna, near Bangor, happened at about 7:30 a.m. and involved several cars, a school bus and a tractor-trailer, state police spokesman Steve McCausland said. He said some of the injuries were serious.
Emergency personnel climbed on top of cars to reach motorists stuck in the middle of the jumble of vehicles. McCausland said one veteran trooper described the site as a "giant pile of metal."
State police said the crash was the biggest in Maine in more than 15 years.
Rhonda Kent, an occupational therapist from Saint Albans, said her car was sideswiped amid the pileup, which sent cars and trucks spinning. Kent, who was not injured, said a logging truck came dangerously close to hitting her and spun off into a ditch.
"It was almost surreal, something you see in the movies," Kent said.
Both northbound lanes on a 30-mile stretch of highway were closed for five hours, and drivers were told to take other exits to avoid the area. One northbound lane reopened around 12:30 p.m.; the other opened several hours later.
Two hospitals reported taking in 17 patients, some in serious condition. One person at the scene of the crash had a heart attack and some people suffered broken bones, police said. Two students and two adults on the bus were shaken up but not injured.
Photo: Lori Welch
Photo: Lori Welch
Photo: Lori Welch
Photo: Lori Welch
Police said the main crash involved more than 25 vehicles, and there were a series of other wrecks leading up to the crash site. Some of the crashes involved two or three vehicles, and then other vehicles went off the road to avoid hitting them.
State Police Lt. Sean Hashey said he was "absolutely shocked that we don't have any fatalities."
He said the crashes were likely the result of poor visibility, slippery roads and speed but cautioned that reconstructing exactly how the events unfolded could be impossible.
"We'll never know exactly who hit who," Hashey said. "It was just such a mess of vehicles."
At a travel stop in nearby Newburgh, people involved in the crash gathered to give statements to police and wait to see their wrecked vehicles. Some were keeping warm in a parked school bus. Workers at the truck stop reported seeing more than a dozen ambulances try to access the highway from a nearby ramp.
Rose Butts, a hotel housekeeper from Plymouth, said she swerved to miss part of the accident and hit a snow bank. She and a friend were not injured but waited in her car for five hours for help.
"We're thankful that we're both alive and both OK," she said.
Dylan Carroll, a Plymouth auto mechanic, said he swerved and hit a snow bank before a garbage truck spun out, tapped his car and blocked him. He was not injured.
"I thought it was going to be much worse than it was," Carroll said.There was at least an inch of snow on the ground at the time of the crash, according to the National Weather Service. Snow was forecast to fall throughout the day with total accumulations of 5 to 9 inches. - ABC News.
Snow plow truck gets stuck in sinkhole in Youngstown, Ohio
Snow plow in sinkhole.
An
intersection on Youngstown' west side was blocked Monday morning until
water department crews could fill in a hole caused by water department
excavation.
A city plow truck fell into the hole Sunday
afternoon while clearing the intersection of N. Glenellen Ave. and
Burbank Ave. in Youngstown.
A tow truck had to pull out the
snow plow, which had gone straight through the pavement. The hole has
since been patched with dry material.
The accident happened at the same place where a water main broke the week of Feb. 15.
- WKBN.
Meanwhile in the Desert Kingdom: Saudi Arabia on high alert following snowstorms
Snow in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia
Health and security officials in Tabuk have been on full alert because of snowstorms in the northwestern part of the Kingdom over the past two days.The affected areas are AlDhaher Alakan Abu AlHanshan Attabaq Tinenar Wadi AlAsmar AlLawz Mountain and AlAniq.
The Saudi Red Crescent has reinforced its teams with extra officials to
take care of the large numbers of people who are enjoying the snow. The
Civil Defense has issued early warnings to alert people to take care
and follow safety measures in such extreme weather conditions.
Khaled AlEnaizi spokesman of the Saudi Red Crescent in Tabuk said 11
teams had been assigned to parks and locations of heavy snowfalls where
citizens and residents are out around the clock.
Auda AlAtawi
spokesman for the health affairs in Tabuk said they were ready with
rescue teams to deal with current weather conditions according to
directions from the Civil Defense. He said four mobile units were ready
to offer field support at any location.
He said the authorities
are coordinating with the Civil Defense and the Red Crescent through
the crisis and emergency center which is affiliated with the Health
Ministry. Medical support is readily available if needed.
The
General Traffic Directorate in Tabuk prepared field teams under the
leadership of a number of officers in Alakan AlZaita and the AlLawz
Mountain according to Gen. Mohammad AlBugami the traffic director. He
said his directorate had implemented a traffic plan to deal with the
rain and snowfall and the resulting traffic congestion.
He said
the plan included assigning a number of officers and individuals and
dividing them into groups to carry out traffic security tasks around the
clock. He said that all necessary procedures to guarantee traffic
safety for people in these areas are being taken. - Menafn.
Avalanches kill at least 124 people in Afghanistan
Avalanches caused by a heavy winter snow have killed at least 124 people in north-eastern Afghanistan, an emergency official said on Wednesday, as rescuers clawed through debris with their hands to save those buried beneath.
The avalanches buried homes across four north-east provinces, killing
those beneath, said Mohammad Aslam Syas, the deputy director of the
Afghanistan natural disaster management authority. The province worst
hit appeared to be Panjshir province, about 100km (60 miles) north-east
of the capital, Kabul, where the avalanches destroyed or damaged around
100 homes, Syas said.
The acting governor of Panjshir, Abdul
Rahman Kabiri, said rescuers used their bare hands and shovels in an
effort to reach survivors. Rescue teams had been dispatched to the
affected areas and casualties were expected to rise, Syas said.
The heavy snowstorms, which began early Tuesday, hampered rescue efforts. Snowfall from the storm was nearly one meter (3ft) deep in places and fallen trees blocked roads in the Panjshir Valley.
General Abdul Aziz Ghirat, the provincial police chief of Panjshir, said the death toll from the avalanches was expected to risewhen rescue attempts resumed at sunrise Thursday.
Avalanches in the valley's Dara district affected up to 600 families,
according to people trying to reach the area to assist in rescue
efforts.
"People there have told me that two of my relatives
have been killed and eight others are still under the snow," said an
Afghan who goes by the single name Sharafudin. "My son and I are trying
to get through to see if we can help find their bodies. But it will take
us at least three or four hours to get there because of the snow and
the road is very narrow, so we have to walk, the car can't get through."
He spoke at the mouth of the valley, where traffic moved at a crawl.
"We've had no help yet from the authorities, no medicines, no machinery
to open the roads so we can get to the buried houses," Sharafudin said.
Another man stuck on the highway trying to reach Dara told the
Associated Press that many bodies remained in houses buried beneath
feet of snow.
"We are so concerned about our relatives who are just stuck there," said the man named Abu Muslim.
Large parts of Afghanistan have been covered in snow as a major storm interrupted an otherwise mild and dry winter.
Authorities in Parwan province closed the strategic Salang Tunnel,
which links the north and south of the country, over avalanche fears.
Power cables traversing the tunnel have been damaged, cutting power to
much of Kabul since earlier this week.
In a statement,
President Ashraf Ghani said he was "saddened by news of the avalanches
and flooding across the country". He said he had ordered urgent
assessments of the extent of damage and offered his condolences to the
families of the dead.
Temperatures have plummeted across the
country, though the snow was expected to start melting in the Panjshir
Valley and much of the mountainous north-west of the Hindu Kush range in
coming days, according to forecasts.
Afghanistan has suffered
through some three decades of war since the Soviet invasion in 1979. But
natural disasters such as landslides, floods and avalanches have taken a
toll on a country with little infrastructure or development outside of
its major cities.
In May, a massive landslide killed anywhere
from 250 to 2,700 people, authorities said at the time. Another
landslide in 2012 killed 71 people. Authorities were not able to recover
the vast majority of bodies and ended up declaring the site a massive
grave. - The Guardian.
Ancient's Knowledge of Birkeland Currents & Cooling Patterns on Earth
This
video explains on the physical level how our star/sun is powered from
an external source originating in Orion. There is no attempt to decode
esoteric knowledge of the symbols, other than the physical
representation of how these symbols have been saved and revered through
antiquity. As our sun is now beginning to decrease its power output we
are beginning to enter a new Grand Solar Minimum, the symbols are what
on the physical level are repeating cycles of time which were recorded.
I
am pointing out that ancient societies knew our solar system goes
through waxing and waning of energy, which effects life on this planet.
The information was encoded as symbols that depict physical energy
connections through space. The mental and spiritual planes of existence
are not mentioned as this is not the information that correlates to the
Grand Solar Minimum which has already begun.
Lastly, there are
many levels within symbols, I only reference the visual, not the
intertwined deeper meanings. Physical representations only that relate
to energy and pertain to the irradiance to and from our sun.
WATCH: Ancient's Knowledge of Birkeland Currents & Cooling Patterns on Earth.
February 18, 2015 - SPACE
- The conceit that human production of carbon dioxide is capable of
driving the earth’s climate is running smack into the sun. CO2 accounts
for a mere 0.039% of the atmosphere,
while the sun accounts for 99.86% of all of the mass in our entire
solar system. And Ol’ Sol is not taking the insult lightly. Vencore Weather reports:
For
the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of
solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flatlined in recent
days (plot below courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center). Not
since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with
fewer sunspots.
We
are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and today the sun
is virtually spotless despite the fact that we are still in what is
considered to be its solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an
unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which
included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost
a century.
There are several possible consequences to the solar quiet. The first is counterintuitive:
By
all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar
activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, while a weak
solar cycle does suggest strong solar storms will occur less often than
during stronger and more active cycles, it does not rule them out
entirely. In fact, the famous Carrington Event of 1859 occurred during a
weak solar cycle (#10) [http://thesiweather.com/2014/09/02/300-pm-the-carrington-event-of-1859-a-solar-superstorm-that-took-places-155-years-ago/].
In addition, there is some evidence that most large events such as
strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in
the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a
chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.
Our
dependence on electronic devices is such that extreme solar events
could have serious consequences. However, it is the likely impact on
atmospheric temperatures that threatens the “consensus” on global
warming:
…if
history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a
prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global
temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of
Earth’s atmosphere - and where we all live. There have been two notable
historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The
first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar
astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The
second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English
meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both
of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global
temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”.
In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have
found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays,
and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar
activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach
the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an
increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.
It
is common sense to believe that the sun has more influence on global
temperatures than a trace gas. With a 17 year “pause” in the predicted
outcomes of an increase in atmospheric CO2, warmists face more and more
awkward questions. If temperatures actually decline as a result of an
expected decrease in solar activity, at some point the game will be up,
and the billions of dollars a year squandered on climate modeling that
doesn’t predict what happens will have to dry up.
Mike Longmire, from Los Angeles, walks across
Tremont Place while covering his face with a scarf Tuesday, Dec. 30,
2014 at the intersection of 17th Street and Tremont Place in Denver,
Colorado. (Brent Lewis, The Denver Post)
January 1, 2015 - COLORADO, UNITED STATES - Recording-breaking cold in Denver is expected to fade on Wednesday as temperatures heat up into the afternoon.
Two records were broken in Denver on Tuesday, including the record low and record low high.
A minus 19 degree reading at the Denver International Airport broke the record low of minus 11 set in 1898. The high temperature only topped out at 1 degree setting new record low high, shattering the old record of 8 degrees set in 1915.
A person crosses
street Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2014 at Glenarm Street and Park Avenue West in
Denver, Colorado. According to the National Weather Service temperatures
on the Front Range hit a high temperature Tuesday of 1 degree
Fahrenheit and a low minus 19 degrees Fahrenheit. (Brent Lewis, The
Denver Post)
The coldest temperature recorded overnight Tuesday in Colorado was in Walden, where the tiny Jackson County town near the border with Wyoming reached minus 36.
Forecasters say they expect temperatures in Denver to top out in the mid-20s by Wednesday afternoon.
"When the sun comes out it will start to warm up," said Cari Bowen, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Boulder.
A wind chill warning is in effect for the Eastern Plains and parts of the Front Range, including Colorado Springs and Castle Rock, through Wednesday morning.
Temperatures are expected to reach into the low 30s on New Years Day when there is 10 percent chance of snow, forecasters. - Denver Post.
December 23, 2014 - EARTH
- Many stories in media outlets seem to purposely misdirect and cloud
the possibility of natural influences that drive Earth's climate.
Our Sun does have a major influence on heating and cooling as it has
had over the last several million years, but now every event seems to
have a Man-Made stamp on it.
I have dissected this Guardian
Unlimited article to what the authors claim and what observed science
says. The graphs and information should open your eyes even further to
the misdirection that is taking place.
WATCH: How Media Mis-directs You From Natural Influences on Climate.
December 23, 2014 - CHICAGO, UNITED STATES -
If the thought of entering another Chicago winter isn't depressing
enough, meteorologists say the city is on track to have one of the
gloomiest Decembers in its history.
There has been no direct
sunshine recorded in Chicago for 15 days this month, according to Frank
Wachowski, who mans the official North West Side Midway Airport sunlight
observatory.
Since Dec. 12, the city has seen only 33 minutes of sunshine, which peeked through the clouds Thursday.
That puts December 2014 on track to break the record for darkest
December since 1975, when the National Weather Service recorded 19
percent sun exposure. As of Monday, Wachowski had recorded 16 percent
sun exposure this month.
The record for darkest month ever in Chicago was November 1985, when sunlight hit the city for 16 percent of the month.
Percentages are determined by dividing the total number of hours
between sunrise and sunset by the minutes of exposed sunshine recorded
with monitoring equipment, Wachowski said.
Wachowski, 77, is a
retired meteorologist, but since 1980 he has recorded sunshine data with
official transistor sensors mounted atop his home in southwest suburban
Burbank. He set up his home operation after the National Weather
Service abandoned sunshine monitoring in the early 1980s, allowing him
to keep the equipment and monitor data independently.
Wachowski
said that in part, the lack of snowfall could be to blame. If a
snowstorm blows through Chicago, the tightly packed cloud cover might
dissipate. In the meantime, the clouds have been locked between a layer
of cold air close to the ground with warmer air above the clouds.
"When you have an inversion, you have low clouds that stick around,"
Wachowski said. "Lack of wind contributes to giving us this situation,"
he said, along with unseasonably high temperatures, which this year have
been 2 degrees to 2.5 degrees above average for December.
Essentially, "winds blew clouds in early in the month, and they stayed
there," said Bill Nelson, a meteorologist with the National Weather
Service who monitors the Chicago area.
Meteorologist Frank
Wachowski and the National Weather Service graphed this month's sunshine
exposure data in the Chicago area.
Wachowski said there's an
interest in tracking the sunshine shortage in part because of how
extended periods of darkness can effect people.
"When it's cloudy like this, it does have an effect on people," he said. "It is kind of gloomy, you feel tired all the time."
Limited exposure to sunlight and Vitamin D common during the winter
months can trigger a subtype of depression called seasonal affective
disorder, according to a statement from Northwestern Medicine
psychiatrist Pedro Dago, who studies the effects of sunlight deprivation at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine.
"SAD is not just a case of the winter blues, but a serious problem for many people, and it can be treated," he said.
Dago said treatments include sleeping more, eating healthily and
exercising, and increasing exposure to sunlight, which might be tricky
this month.
"There seems to be a correlation, because when you have temps in the
teens, you kill all the viruses and germs. Here, we have more moisture
in the air," making it easier for germs to linger and spread, he said.
Weather patterns suggest that if any sunlight does peek out this month,
it would be on Christmas Day, when a storm system might pass through
Chicago, breaking up some of the cloud cover.
Still, Wachowski
said it's "quite conceivable" that December 2014 will break the record
set in 1975. So we've got that going for us, which is nice. - DNA Info.
December 18, 2014 - SPACE -
The Sun’s energy output and Solar Irradiance do affect our planet's
weather in repeating cycles, and through 400 years of sunspot
observation, it seems we are starting to repeat a cold period of either
the 1830’s (Dalton Minimum) or 1650’s (Maunder Minimum) era.
On December 15th in sunspot group 2239 an invisible sunspot appeared
with negative polarity which can only be explained if the area was at
1500 Gauss or weaker. This indicates the plasma field is very weak and
that the sun is going into a hibernation phase.
Within a few years time the magnetic field will be to weak to support any Sunspots on the face of the Sun.
WATCH: Is the Sun Starting to Hibernate?
Solar
Cycle 24 has an initial low peak followed by a higher secondary peak,
the only other two solar cycles to follow this trend were SC 5 and SC
12, which both ushered in a cold era.
This does not include solar cycles (-11 to -1) which preceded the official start of counting but date back to 1600.
WATCH:
Secondary Solar High Peak Means a Repeat 1810 Cooling Pattern.
December 15, 2014 - EARTH - The Earth is about to begin a steep drop in global temperatures off its present global temperature plateau. This
plateau has been caused by the absence of growth in global temperatures
for 18 years, the start of global cooling in the atmosphere and the
oceans, and the end of a short period of moderate solar heating from an
unusually active secondary peak in solar cycle #24. Average global atmospheric and oceanic temperatures will drop significantly beginning between 2015 and 2016and
will continue with only temporary reversals until they stabilize during
a long cold temperature base lasting most of the 2030's and 2040's.
The
bottom of the next global cold climate caused by a "solar hibernation"
(a pronounced reduction in warming energy coming from the Sun) is
expected to be reached by the year 2031.
The predicted
temperature decline will continue for the next fifteen years and will
likely be the steepest ever recorded in human history, discounting past
short-duration volcanic events.
Global average temperatures during the 2030's will reach a level of at least 1.5° C lower.
WATCH: 30 Top Scientists Predict Global Cooling 2015-2050.
WATCH: Unusual Phenomenon in the Seas off Greenland.
November 18, 2014 - CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES
- The largest solar power plant of its type in the world - once
promoted as a turning point in green energy - isn't producing as much
energy as planned.
One of the reasons is as basic as it gets: The sun isn't shining as much as expected.
Sprawling
across roughly 5 square miles of federal desert near the
California-Nevada border, the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System
opened in February, with operators saying it would produce enough
electricity to power a city of 140,000 homes.
So
far, however, the plant is producing about half of its expected annual
output for 2014, according to calculations by the California Energy
Commission.
It had been projected to produce its full capacity for 8 hours a day, on average.
"Factors
such as clouds, jet contrails and weather have had a greater impact on
the plant than the owners anticipated," the agency said in a statement.
It
could take until 2018 for the plant backed by $1.6 billion in federal
loan guarantees to hit its annual peak target, said NRG Energy Inc.,
which operates the plant and co-owns it with Google Inc. and
BrightSource Energy.
Image from nrg.com
"During startup we have
experienced ... equipment challenges, typical with any new technology,
combined with irregular weather patterns," NRG spokesman Jeff Holland
said in a statement. "We are confident that Ivanpah's long-term
generation projections will meet expectations."
The
technology used at Ivanpah is different than the familiar photovoltaic
panels commonly used for rooftop solar installations. The plant's
solar-thermal system - sometimes called concentrated-solar thermal -
relies on nearly 350,000 computer-controlled mirrors at the site, each
the size of a garage door.
The mirrors reflect
sunlight to boilers atop 459-foot towers - each taller than the Statue
of Liberty. The resulting steam drives turbines to create electricity.
When
the $2.2 billion complex opened, Energy Department Secretary Ernest
Moniz called it a "symbol of the exciting progress" in renewable energy.
While
the agency still says the project remains in good standing, Kaitlin
Meese, an analyst at research firm Bentek Energy, said its early
production figures "do not paint a strong picture for solar-thermal
technology development."
The operation of such
plants is highly dependent on weather conditions, and predicting when
and how strongly the sun will shine is not a perfect science.
A
little bit of inefficiency with mirrors can translate into a loss of
power output ranging from small to significant, said Dr. Neil Fromer,
executive director of the Resnick Sustainability Institute at the
California Institute of Technology.
Problems
could include getting the thousands of mirrors pointed in precisely the
right direction, especially in the cool early morning, or keeping them
clean in the dusty Mojave Desert.
WATCH: Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating Facility.
Operators
initially expected to need steam from gas-powered boilers for an hour a
day during startup. After operations began, they found they needed to
keep boilers running more than four times longer - an average of 4 1/2
hours a day.
State energy regulators in August approved the plant's request to increase the natural gas it is allowed to burn by 60 percent.
Additional
natural gas could also be needed to operate boilers when clouds thicken
or to maintain output at the end of the day and extend the capability
for power production, the company said.
"Because
the plant requires sunlight to heat water and turn it to steam,
anything that reduces the sunlight will affect steam conditions, which
could damage equipment and potentially cause unsafe conditions," said
the commission, which approved the request for increased gas use.
Fromer
said it was surprising that so much additional gas is needed, adding
that it "signals to me they have some very large problems that they are
going to need to sort out."
Plants owners said they are learning on the fly to some extent.
"For
some aspects of operation, the only way to fully understand how the
systems work has been through the experience of operating," plant owners
wrote in the request to increase gas use.
Holland
said the company always expected a ramp-up period of four years to
reach maximum output. That extended period was not publicly disclosed,
however. Holland said it is outlined in confidential agreements with two
California utilities buying the power, Southern California Edison and
Pacific Gas and Electric Co.
Brightsource said
on its website that the weather has generally been substantially worse
than historical averages - in other words, cloudy - resulting in reduced
output in certain months.
"We remain confident
that over time the sun at Ivanpah will be more than sufficient for the
plant to meet its expected performance targets," the statement said. - 790 Talk Now.
January 16, 2014 - SUN - Scientists are saying that the Sun is in a phase of "solar lull" - meaning that it has fallen asleep - and it is baffling them.
History suggests that periods of unusual "solar lull" coincide with bitterly cold winters.
Rebecca Morelle reports for BBC Newsnight on the effect this inactivity could have on our current climate, and what the implications might be for global warming. - BBC.
December 31, 2013 - SUN - The sun has "flipped upside down", with its north and south poles reversed to reach the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24, NASA has said.
The sun’s magnetic field has fully reversed its polarity, marking the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24,
which will be completed in 11 years time
Now, the magnetic fields will once again started moving in opposite directions to begin the completion of the 22 year long process which will culminate in the poles switching once again.
"A reversal of the sun's magnetic field is, literally, a big event," said NASA’s Dr. Tony Phillips.
"The domain of the sun's magnetic influence (also known as the 'heliosphere') extends billions of kilometers beyond Pluto. Changes to the field's polarity ripple all the way out to the Voyager probes, on the doorstep of interstellar space."
To mark the event, NASA has released a visualisation of the entire process.
WATCH: The Sun Reverses its Magnetic Poles.
At the beginning, in 1997 the video shows the sun in Solar Cycle 23 with its positive polarity on the top (the green lines), and the negative polarity on the bottom (the purple lines).
Each set of lines gradually move toward the opposite pole, showing a complete flip around 2002, completing the sun's previous cycle.
Both set of lines representing the opposing magnetic fields then begin to work their way back, to culminate in the latest flip.
"At the height of each magnetic flip, the sun goes through periods of more solar activity, during which there are more sunspots, and more eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections," said NASA’s Karen C. Fox.
"Cosmic rays are also affected," added Dr. Phillips. "These are high-energy particles accelerated to nearly light speed by supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy." - Independent.
December 17, 2013 - SUN - The sun's current space-weather cycle is the most anemic in 100 years, scientists say.
This still from a video taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the Aug. 8, 2011 solar flare as
it appeared in the ultraviolet range of the light spectrum. The flare registered as an X6.9 class sun storm,
the largest of the Solar Cycle 24. Credit: NASA/SDO/GSFC
Our star is now at "solar maximum," the peak phase of its 11-year activity cycle. But this solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 24, conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s, researchers said.
"None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. So we will learn something," Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University told reporters here today (Dec. 11) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
The learning has already begun. For example, scientists think they know why the solar storms that have erupted during Solar Cycle 24 have caused relatively few problems here on Earth.
The sun often blasts huge clouds of superheated particles into space, in explosions known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Powerful CMEs that hit Earth squarely can trigger geomagnetic storms, which in turn can disrupt radio communications, GPS signals and power grids.
But such effects have rarely been seen during Solar Cycle 24, even though the total number of CMEs hasn't dropped off much, if at all. The explanation, researchers said, lies in the reduced pressure currently present in the heliosphere, the enormous bubble of charged particles and magnetic fields that the sun puffs out around itself.
This lower pressure has allowed CMEs to expand greatly as they cruise through space, said Nat Gopalswamy of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. Indeed, Solar Cycle 24 CMEs are, on average, 38 percent bigger than those measured during the last cycle — a difference with real consequences for folks here on Earth.
"When the CMEs expand more, the magnetic field inside the CMEs has lower strength," Gopalswamy said. "So when you have lower-strength magnetic fields, then they cause milder geomagnetic storms."
Scientists also think they know why relatively few super-fast solar energetic particles, or SEPS, have been measured in Earth's neighborhood during the current cycle, which began in early 2008. It has to do with a weakened interplanetary magnetic field, another characteristic of Solar Cycle 24, they say.
Large SEP events, which can pose a danger to astronauts in Earth orbit, are created by the shock waves driven by CMEs. But fewer of these particles are getting accelerated by such shocks these days, said Joe Giacalone of the University of Arizona.
"When the magnetic field is weaker, the particles are not trapped near the shock as effectively," Giacalone said. "They're going much farther upstream and downstream of the shock wave, and it takes a lot longer for them to get to very high energies."
The strength or weakness of a solar cycle appears to be driven by the intensity of the sun's polar magnetic field during the previous cycle. The polar field is thought to feed the sunspots— dark and relatively cool patches on the sun that are the source of CMEs and solar flares — that come in during the next cycle, Gopalswamy said.
The polar field was weak during Solar Cycle 23, so researchers suspected that Solar Cycle 24 would be underwhelming. Predictions about Solar Cycle 25 should start coming in two or three years, when the polar field reappears, Svalgaard said. - SPACE.
