Showing posts with label Sunspots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunspots. Show all posts

Friday, February 12, 2016

MONUMENTAL SOLAR SYSTEM ANOMALIES: Welcome To The Quiet Sun - Solar Cycle 24 Activity Continues To Be The Lowest In NEARLY 200 YEARS!


February 12, 2016 - SUN - It has been a couple of months since WUWT has checked in on the progress of solar cycle 24. Right now, the sun is in “cue ball” mode, with no large visible sunspots as seen above in the most recent Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) photo.


Since there is a new analysis out at Pierre Gosselin’s website by Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, I thought it would be a good time to do an update. They write:

[The sun was] rather quiet in January. The determined solar sunspot number (SSN) was 56.6, which is 71% of the mean this far into the period, calculated using the 23 previously measured solar cycles.


Figure 1: Plot of the monthly sunspot number so far for the current cycle (red line) compared to the mean solar cycle (blue line)
and the similar solar cycle no. 5 (black).



The earlier peak occurring at month number 35 (fall 2011) signaled the time of the SSN maximum at the sun’s northern hemisphere. The later peaks occurring at about month no. 68 (mid 2014) are the SSN maximum for the sun’s southern hemisphere.

They also have a prediction, read about it here. Full report (in German) here.

As you can see from the plots in Figure 1, the current level of activity of solar cycle 24 seems close to that of solar cycle number 5, which occurred beginning in May 1798 and ending in December 1810 (thus falling within the Dalton Minimum).

The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 49.2, in February 1805 (the second lowest of any cycle to date, as a result of being part of the Dalton Minimum), and the minimum was zero.(ref: Wikipedia)

Below is what the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has offered this month. Sunspot count continues below the red prediction line. 10.7 cm radio flux is about at the prediction level, and the Ap geomagnetic index continues to rise, suggesting that the solar magnetic dynamo might be a bit more active, but that activity isn’t translating into increased sunspots or radio flux.


Sunspot Number Progression

F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

AP Progression


As always, there’s more at the WUWT Solar Reference Page - WUWT.





Wednesday, January 27, 2016

SOLAR WATCH: Magnetic Eruption On The Sun - Non-Earth Directed Coronal Mass Ejectons!


January 27, 2016 - SPACE - A filament of magnetism snaking across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 26th (~1800 UT) and hurled a part of itself into space.

Debris flying away from the blast site ripped through the sun's atmosphere and created a coronal mass ejection (CME).

Newly-arriving coronagraph imagery suggests that the CME will not hit Earth.

However, this preliminary conclusion could be overturned by further analysis, so stay tuned.

Sunspots


Credit: SDO/HMI


Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk as we head into Thursday. Solar activity is currently at very low levels with no noteworthy solar flares to report. Region 2489 was showing signs up growth, however separation between the lead dark core and smaller trailing spots was observed during the past 12 hours. There will remain a chance for at least minor C-Class solar flares with a smaller threat for an isolated M-Flare. All other regions are currently stable. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were detected during the past 24 hours.


Coronal Holes

Credit: SDO/AIA.


Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole.

 - Space Weather | Solar Ham.




Saturday, December 26, 2015

ICE AGE NOW: Global Cooling - Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sets Another Record!


December 26, 2015 - ARCTIC SEA - The extent of thirty percent concentration sea ice in the Arctic has reach 10 million km² in December for the first time since at least 2004.
Shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended to be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure.





Source: Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut


- Real Science.









Thursday, December 17, 2015

SOLAR WATCH: Two Eruptions On The Sun - Possibly Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections; Will Impact Earth's Geomagnetic Field By Weekend!


December 17, 2015 - SPACE - Two coronal mass ejections to report today, both of which appear to have an Earth directed component.

The first CME was the result of a C6.6 solar flare that I first reported on earlier this morning at 09:03 UTC (December 16). This CME appears to have faint full halo characteristics and could impact our planet by early this weekend.




The second and somewhat brighter, full halo coronal mass ejection was the result of an eruptive event along a filament channel in the southeast quadrant beginning at 13:45 UTC. This too may impact our geomagnetic field by early this weekend.


The WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction model released by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Propelled in our direction by an erupting filament of magnetism, the storm cloud could produce G1-class geomagnetic storms when it arrives on December 19th.

The combination of both events may trigger geomagnetic storming which could be great news for aurora sky watchers. 

Stay tuned here, for refinements to the forecast when NOAA storm tracks become available later today. 


WATCH: Two Coronal Mass Ejections - December 16, 2015.




Sunspots

Big sunspot AR2470 poses a slight threat for M-class solar flares.


Credit: SDO/HMI


Current Auroral Oval

Credit: NOAA/Ovation


Coronal Holes

Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole.


Credit: SDO/AIA.

Geomagnetic Storms

A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) struck Earth's magnetic field on December 14th, followed shortly thereafter by a high-speed stream of solar wind.

The double jolt sparked almost 9 hours of G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras around the Arctic Circle. Brian Whittaker saw the display from the cockpit of an airplane 35,000 feet above Northern Manitoba, Canada:




"In addition to the auroras, the Geminid meteor shower was very active," says Whittaker.

More auroras are in the offing on December 16th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of continued storming as the solar wind continues to blow.

Solar Wind Stream / Colorful Aurora

Geomagnetic activity is back to relatively quiet levels following periods of minor (G1) storming on Monday and into early Tuesday morning. The solar wind remains elevated and could contribute to isolated periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity during the next 24 hours.

Sacha Layos from Fairbanks, Alaska sends us the colorful aurora image below that she captured very early Tuesday morning. Thanks for sharing!




- Solar Ham | Space Weather.





Sunday, April 5, 2015

SOLAR WATCH: "Canyon Of Fire" Opens On The Sun - Monster Filament Of Magnetism Stretches Halfway Across The Stellar Object, Splitting The Sun's Atmosphere, Hurling CME Into Space; Glancing Blow To Earth Possible By April 7th!


April 5, 2015 - SPACE
- A filament of magnetism stretching halfway across the sun erupted during the late hours of April 4th (22:00-23:00 UT).

The eruption split the sun's atmosphere, hurling a CME into space and creating a "canyon of fire" shown here in a movie recorded by the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

WATCH: Filament Eruption on the Sun.




The glowing walls of the canyon trace the original channel where the filament was suspended by magnetic forces above the sun's surface. From end to end, the structure stretches more than 300,000 km--a real Grand Canyon.

Fragments of the exploding filament formed the core of a CME that raced away from the sun at approximately 900 km/s (2 million mph): image. Most of the CME will miss Earth, but not all. The cloud is expected to deliver a a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field could on April 7th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Incoming CME

A CME hurled into space by the 'canyon of fire' eruption, described below, could sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on April 7th. Polar geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible when the CME arrives.

Sunspots

X-Ray activity during the past 24 hours was technically low. A filament eruption in the southern hemisphere resulted in a long duration C3.8 hyder flare event, along with a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be directed mostly to the east and away from our planet.




According to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), a weak glancing blow shock passage may still be possible by April 7th.

Geomagnetic storming is not currently expected to come from this.

 All visible numbered regions, including sunspot 2320 are currently stable.

Coronal Hole

Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole.




- Space Weather | Solar Ham.



Wednesday, February 25, 2015

SOLAR WATCH: Spectacular Explosion On The Sun - Not Earth-Directed; Minor Geomagnetic Storm Observed At High Latitudes!



February 25, 2015 - SPACE
- Yesterday, Feb. 24th at approximately 11:00 UTC, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a spectacular eruption near the sun's southeastern limb.

The blast was rooted on the backside of the sun, but some of the explosion's debris fell back to the sun on the frontside.

Earth was not in the line of fire. Because of the non Earth facing position, an Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) is highly unlikely.

WATCH: Prominence Eruption - February 24, 2015.




Minor Storming Observed

Periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming was observed at high latitudes early Tuesday morning due to an enhanced solar wind stream containing periods of southward Bz. Aurora displays were reported across many locations around the Arctic Circle and beyond.

Brian Drourr was out early Tuesday morning and took the nice photo below capturing a green aurora glow from Sand Bar State Park in Northern Vermont, USA.




Lovely aurora image courtesy of Chris Ratzlaff in Alberta, Canada. Captured early Tuesday morning during a period of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming.




Attached is a nice aurora image from last night sent to us by Jacob Frazier who captured this shot from Whidby Island located in Washington State, USA.




Sunspots

Aside from the aforementioned explosion, solar activity during the past 48 hours was at very low levels with the exception of a minor C1 flare detected off the west limb.




Region 2290 showed minor development during the past day, but has so far remained quiet and does not appear to be very threatening at this time.. New sunspot 2292 was numbered after forming in the southeast quadrant and will be monitored.

No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past day. Solar wind speeds are currently above 400 km/s. Minor enhancements could trigger elevated geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes.


Coronal Hole

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 2-3.




- Space Weather | Solar Ham.



Wednesday, February 18, 2015

MONUMENTAL SOLAR SYSTEM ANOMALIES: The Sun Goes Quiet - Weakest Solar Cycle In More Than A Century!



February 18, 2015 - SPACE
- The conceit that human production of carbon dioxide is capable of driving the earth’s climate is running smack into the sun. CO2 accounts for a mere 0.039% of the atmosphere, while the sun accounts for 99.86% of all of the mass in our entire solar system. And Ol’ Sol is not taking the insult lightly. Vencore Weather reports:
For the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flatlined in recent days (plot below courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center). Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots.
We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and today the sun is virtually spotless despite the fact that we are still in what is considered to be its solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.




There are several possible consequences to the solar quiet. The first is counterintuitive:

By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, while a weak solar cycle does suggest strong solar storms will occur less often than during stronger and more active cycles, it does not rule them out entirely. In fact, the famous Carrington Event of 1859 occurred during a weak solar cycle (#10) [http://thesiweather.com/2014/09/02/300-pm-the-carrington-event-of-1859-a-solar-superstorm-that-took-places-155-years-ago/].

In addition, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.
Our dependence on electronic devices is such that extreme solar events could have serious consequences.  However, it is the likely impact on atmospheric temperatures that threatens the “consensus” on global warming:
…if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere - and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.
It is common sense to believe that the sun has more influence on global temperatures than a trace gas. With a 17 year “pause” in the predicted outcomes of an increase in atmospheric CO2, warmists face more and more awkward questions. If temperatures actually decline as a result of an expected decrease in solar activity, at some point the game will be up, and the billions of dollars a year squandered on climate modeling that doesn’t predict what happens will have to dry up.




Sunday, February 8, 2015

SOLAR WATCH: Dark Solar Filament - The Next Big Solar Explosion Could Come From A Massive Magnetic Filament That Hangs Over The Surface Of The Sun; Over 400,000 km Long! [PHOTOS]

February 8, 2015 - SUN - Most solar flares come from sunspots. The next big explosion, however, could come from a different source: A huge magnetic filament is hanging over the surface of the sun, and it could erupt at any moment. Sergio Castillo photographed the structure from his backyard observatory in Corona, CA:




"This dark filament wish is really easy to spot using a backyard solar telescope," says Castillo. "Many amateur astronomers are photographing it."

The structure is, essentially, a tendril of plasma more than 400,000 km long held suspended above the surface of the sun by magnetic forces. Its scale is nicely illustrated in this diagram prepared by Spaceweather.com reader Sefano Sello of Pisa, Italy.




If the filament were peeled off the sun and stretched out, it would easily reach from Earth to the Moon. It could also be wrapped around the circumference of giant Jupiter many times over.

If the filament becomes unstable and erupts, it could hurl parts of itself into space. Pieces of the filament falling back to the solar surface would explode upon impact, creating one or more Hyder flares. Astronomers with backyard solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor the structure as it turns toward Earth. A photogenic explosion may be in the offing.


Sunspots

Solar activity on Saturday starts off at low levels.

Minor C-Flares are being detected around both regions 2277 and 2280. Additional C-Flares will be likely this weekend with a chance for an isolated M-Flare.




Region 2280 will be the most likely candidate to produce such an event. Attached image is courtesy of Ron Cottrell who captured a large filament channel on Friday from his location in Arizona:




This plasma dense solar feature is now turning into a geoeffective Earth facing position. Although currently magnetically anchored in place, filaments can sometimes become unstable and collapse, leading to bright coronal mass ejections. 

- Space Weather | Solar Ham.



Thursday, January 22, 2015

SOLAR WATCH: Uptick In Activity On The Sun - Active Region Produces M1.4 Solar Flare Off The East Limb; Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted!

January 22, 2015 - SPACE - Solar activity is now moderate. An active region now turning into view off the east limb produced an M1.4 solar flare at 04:52 UTC.



UPTICK IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

After days of quiet, the sun is stirring. A new unnumbered sunspot emerging over the sun's southeastern limb is crackling with small explosions. Prompted by this development, NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an M-class solar flare today to 25%.


SUNSPOTS

Attached is an updated look at the visible solar on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. New region 2268, currently rotating into view off the southeast limb, produced an M1.4 solar flare at 04:52 UTC (Jan 22). A number of minor C-Flares were also observed around this region. All other visible Earth facing sunspots were quiet throughout the period. Another isolated M-Flare will remain possible as we approach the weekend.




Solar wind speeds remain above 400 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently variable. Enhanced geomagnetic activity will be possible at very high latitudes during the next 24 hours.


GEOMAGNETIC STORM CATEGORY G1 PREDICTED

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20

Serial Number: 597

Issue Time: 2015 Jan 22 2111 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:

Jan 23:  None (Below G1)   Jan 24:  None (Below G1)   Jan 25:  G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


SOLAR WIND SPARKS AURORAS

A stream of solar wind hit Earth during the late hours of Jan. 21st, igniting a bright display of auroras around the Arctic Circle. Oliver Wright sends this picture from Abisko, Lapland, Sweden:




"I spent some time on the lake this week and found a really cool cave where I could get behind the icicles," says Wright. "Tonight while having tea, I noticed the aurora. So a friend and I headed to the ice cave. I took a reindeer skin with me as it has been around the -30 C mark and crawled into the cave. I was intending to photograph in the other direction, but as I turned round I saw the opportunity for a shot. I asked my friend to stay very still and this is the result. I really like the refractions of the aurora and the photographer in the icicles."

Here is another beautiful aurora image sent to us by Natalia Robba who captured this shot on Wednesday (Jan 21) from Ivalo, Finland. She reports that the show lasted for about 2 hours and then subsided just after midnight. 




Image Details: Nkon D4s, 14-24mm, f/2.8, ISO-6400, Exposure 2.5 seconds.

More auroras are in the offing on Jan. 22nd as Earth continues through the solar wind stream. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms.

- Solar Ham | Space Weather.



Wednesday, January 7, 2015

SOLAR WATCH: NOAA Warns Of STRONG, LARGE AND UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM Hitting Earth's Northern Hemisphere - Could Lead To Infrastructure Collapse, Power System Irregularities And Problems With GPS Systems!



January 7, 2015 - SPACE
- The Space Weather Prediction Center issued a warning for a large geomagnetic storm on Wednesday morning.

The NOAA organization said the primary areas that would be affected would be in the northern portion of the northern hemisphere.

Some of the storm's potential effects were power system voltage irregularities, possible false alarms triggered on security systems, and problems with GPS systems.


(NOAA image)

The storm could also impact spacecraft and cause orientation problems in satellites.

The warning also said that the storm could push the area where the Aurora could be seen as far south as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

The main intensity of the storm was supposed to have affected the planet just before 6:30 a.m. but the storm was reported to still be in progress at 9 a.m.

The storm was listed as a G3 on the NOAA storm scale, which is considered large, but not the most severe. - MYFOXNY.

UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM

A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm erupted during the early hours of Jan. 7th, sparking bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. What happened? The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tipped south, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the storm. - Space Weather.



Strong Geomagnetic Storm Observed

The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) tipped sharply south on Wednesday morning and triggered a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm at high latitudes. This allowed the solar wind to more freely interact with our geomagnetic field, thus leading to the sharp increase in auroral activity. Strong storm conditions have since subsided. Sky watchers should remain alert for visible aurora if it is dark outside as a minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect.


A nice aurora photo captured early this morning (January 7) by Marketa Murray in Alaska

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2015 Jan 07 0700 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2015 Jan 07 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7

Threshold Reached: 2015 Jan 07 1125 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
- Solar Ham.



Thursday, December 18, 2014

MONUMENTAL SOLAR SYSTEM CHANGES: Ice Age Now - Invisible Sunspot, Is The Sun Starting To Hibernate; Secondary Solar High Peak Means A Repeat 1810 Cooling Pattern?!


December 18, 2014 - SPACE
- The Sun’s energy output and Solar Irradiance do affect our planet's weather in repeating cycles, and through 400 years of sunspot observation, it seems we are starting to repeat a cold period of either the 1830’s (Dalton Minimum) or 1650’s (Maunder Minimum) era.

On December 15th in sunspot group 2239 an invisible sunspot appeared with negative polarity which can only be explained if the area was at 1500 Gauss or weaker. This indicates the plasma field is very weak and that the sun is going into a hibernation phase.

Within a few years time the magnetic field will be to weak to support any Sunspots on the face of the Sun.

WATCH: Is the Sun Starting to Hibernate?





Solar Cycle 24 has an initial low peak followed by a higher secondary peak, the only other two solar cycles to follow this trend were SC 5 and SC 12, which both ushered in a cold era.

This does not include solar cycles (-11 to -1) which preceded the official start of counting but date back to 1600.

WATCH: Secondary Solar High Peak Means a Repeat 1810 Cooling Pattern.




- Adapt 2030.


MONUMENTAL EARTH CHANGES: Ice Age Now - Arctic Sea Ice Extent Remains At A TEN YEAR HIGH!

December 18, 2014 - ARCTIC OCEAN - Since the end of October,  Arctic sea ice extent has been at a 10 year high almost every day.



 COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

- Real Science.



Thursday, December 4, 2014

SIGNS IN THE HEAVENS: The Latest Happenings In Space - Strong 6.1M Solar Flare Observed; Watch Out For Moon Halos; The Return Of The Evening Star; Electric-Blue Clouds Spreading Over Antarctica; NASA Observes 7 Fireballs!


December 4, 2014 - SPACE
- Here are several of the latest developments in space.


Strong Solar Flare Observed

A noteworthy solar flare measuring M6.1 was observed around region 2222 peaking at 18:25 UTC. This resulted in a short lived R2 level radio blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. The active region is still in a decent position for Earth directed coronal mass ejections. More updates later today should a CME be associated.




ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5

Threshold Reached: 2014 Dec 04 1821 UTC

NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap.
Solar activity during the past 24 hours reached moderate levels. Prior to the M6.1 flare, region 2222 produced an M1.3 solar flare at 08:10 UTC. The active region was also responsible for a number of low to mid level C-Flares.




In addition, minor C-Flares were observed around region 2226 and off the southeast limb. All other visible numbered regions were either stable or in a state of decay. Region 2222 will remain a threat for another M-Flare during the next few days. The region has an unstable "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for moderately-strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares on December 4th. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were detected during the past 24 hours.


Watch Out For Moon Halos

This week the Moon is waxing full, which means now is the time to watch out for Moon halos. Bright moonlight shining through ice crystals in the air can create a luminous network of arcs, pillars and 'dogs around the lunar disk. James Helmericks photographed this example on Dec. 3rd from the Colville River Delta in northern Alaska:




"At 3 o'clock in the morning in northern Alaska, I went out to film the Moon," says Helmericks. "At first, the Moon was surrounded by little more than a slight corona. After a while, though, all the thicker clouds departed, leaving behind a layer of high icy clouds, and we were also engulfed in thin freezing mist. When this happened a whole new set of phenomena appeared, and I snapped the picture above."

The produce such a complex display, the clouds and mist must have contained a variety of ice crystals, with many shapes and orientations. Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley was also amazed by the brightness of the halos:

"This ice halo display would stand out if made by the sun. Made by the very much dimmer Moon 'as black as coal' it is truly remarkable," Cowley says. "The parselenic circle crossing through the Moon (only the sun makes parhelic circles) is hugely bright. Moondogs to the left and right of the Moon are intense, too. Because everything is so bright, we can see many halos that often go unnoticced. An upper tangent arc sits atop the familiar 22 degree halo.  There is an outer more rare 46 degree halo.  We know it is that rather than the more common supralateral arc because it does not quite touch the circumzenithal arc at the picture's top."
"The temperature was -7F with 10 knots of wind, so one needed to be bundled up to enjoy the view," adds Helmericks. That's why they call them "ice halos."


The Return of the Evening Star

For the past two months Venus has been passing behind the sun. Now the second planet is emerging from the glare, setting the stage for The Return of the Evening Star. Yesterday in Spain, the astrophotography group Project Nightflight spotted the silvery light of Venus beaming through the Atlantic sunset:




"Venus is beginning a new evening apparition," says Project Nightflight. "After sunset it is very low in the sky and sets quickly. To catch a glimpse of the Evening Star, you will need crisp skies and an unobstructed view of the western horizon. A pair of binoculars will help spot it."

"Visibility will improve during the weeks ahead," they add. "By the end of December, Venus should be plainly visible even from mid northern latitudes."

A date of particular interest is Dec. 22nd when a super-slender 2% crescent Moon will pass Venus in the evening twilight. Astrophotographers, ready your cameras!


Electric-Blue Clouds Spreading Over Antarctica

Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) around the south pole are spreading and brightening. The latest preliminary image from NASA's AIM spacecraft shows more than 4 times the coverage of just a few days ago:




The season for southern hemisphere noctilucent clouds (NLCs) began on Nov. 22nd with just a few puffy clouds over the frozen continent. Once NLCs first appear, AIM has shown that they rapidly multiply. Indeed, this is happening now, and much of Antarctica soon could be blanketed in electric blue.

Earlier this year, AIM researchers announced a surprising teleconnection: The apparition of NLCs in the southern hemisphere is linked to cold air temperatures thousands of miles away in the northern hemisphere."For example, we found that the winter air temperature in Indianapolis, Indiana, is well correlated with the frequency of noctilucent clouds over Antarctica," says Cora Randall, AIM science team member and Chair of the Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado. Other US cities were similarly correlated.

Data from previous seasons show a 2-week time lag between cold outbreaks in the north and changes to NLCs in the south. However, because the 2014-2015 season is less than two weeks old, the correlation is not yet obvious. "I don't expect the northern hemisphere (NH) teleconnection signal to have significant effects on the onset of the southern hemisphere (SH) season for noctilucent clouds," says Randall. "But once planetary wave activity in the SH stratosphere is quiet (should be soon), then I would expect the connections with the NH winter to become more evident."

Randall and a group of colleagues led by Laura Holt of NorthWest Research Associates have just submitted a paper to the Geophysical Research Letters detailing the link between northern winter and southern NLCs. If you have a GRL subscription, keep an eye out for theirfuture article entitled "Summertime polar mesospheric clouds linked to wintertime surface cold air outbreaks."


Fireballs

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.


On December 4, 2014, the network reported 7 fireballs.




In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).

- Space Weather | Solar Ham.




Tuesday, November 18, 2014

SOLAR WEATHER ANOMALIES: No Sun In California - The World's Largest Solar Plant Not Producing Much Energy; The Sun Isn't Shining As Much As Expected?!

Reuters / Fabian Andres Cambero

November 18, 2014 - CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES
- The largest solar power plant of its type in the world - once promoted as a turning point in green energy - isn't producing as much energy as planned.

One of the reasons is as basic as it gets: The sun isn't shining as much as expected.

Sprawling across roughly 5 square miles of federal desert near the California-Nevada border, the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System opened in February, with operators saying it would produce enough electricity to power a city of 140,000 homes.

So far, however, the plant is producing about half of its expected annual output for 2014, according to calculations by the California Energy Commission.

It had been projected to produce its full capacity for 8 hours a day, on average.

"Factors such as clouds, jet contrails and weather have had a greater impact on the plant than the owners anticipated," the agency said in a statement.

It could take until 2018 for the plant backed by $1.6 billion in federal loan guarantees to hit its annual peak target, said NRG Energy Inc., which operates the plant and co-owns it with Google Inc. and BrightSource Energy.


Image from nrg.com

"During startup we have experienced ... equipment challenges, typical with any new technology, combined with irregular weather patterns," NRG spokesman Jeff Holland said in a statement. "We are confident that Ivanpah's long-term generation projections will meet expectations."

The technology used at Ivanpah is different than the familiar photovoltaic panels commonly used for rooftop solar installations. The plant's solar-thermal system - sometimes called concentrated-solar thermal - relies on nearly 350,000 computer-controlled mirrors at the site, each the size of a garage door.

The mirrors reflect sunlight to boilers atop 459-foot towers - each taller than the Statue of Liberty. The resulting steam drives turbines to create electricity.

When the $2.2 billion complex opened, Energy Department Secretary Ernest Moniz called it a "symbol of the exciting progress" in renewable energy.

While the agency still says the project remains in good standing, Kaitlin Meese, an analyst at research firm Bentek Energy, said its early production figures "do not paint a strong picture for solar-thermal technology development."

The operation of such plants is highly dependent on weather conditions, and predicting when and how strongly the sun will shine is not a perfect science.

A little bit of inefficiency with mirrors can translate into a loss of power output ranging from small to significant, said Dr. Neil Fromer, executive director of the Resnick Sustainability Institute at the California Institute of Technology.

Problems could include getting the thousands of mirrors pointed in precisely the right direction, especially in the cool early morning, or keeping them clean in the dusty Mojave Desert.

WATCH: Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating Facility.


Operators initially expected to need steam from gas-powered boilers for an hour a day during startup. After operations began, they found they needed to keep boilers running more than four times longer - an average of 4 1/2 hours a day.

State energy regulators in August approved the plant's request to increase the natural gas it is allowed to burn by 60 percent.

Additional natural gas could also be needed to operate boilers when clouds thicken or to maintain output at the end of the day and extend the capability for power production, the company said.

"Because the plant requires sunlight to heat water and turn it to steam, anything that reduces the sunlight will affect steam conditions, which could damage equipment and potentially cause unsafe conditions," said the commission, which approved the request for increased gas use.

Fromer said it was surprising that so much additional gas is needed, adding that it "signals to me they have some very large problems that they are going to need to sort out."

Plants owners said they are learning on the fly to some extent.

"For some aspects of operation, the only way to fully understand how the systems work has been through the experience of operating," plant owners wrote in the request to increase gas use.

Holland said the company always expected a ramp-up period of four years to reach maximum output. That extended period was not publicly disclosed, however. Holland said it is outlined in confidential agreements with two California utilities buying the power, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

Brightsource said on its website that the weather has generally been substantially worse than historical averages - in other words, cloudy - resulting in reduced output in certain months.

"We remain confident that over time the sun at Ivanpah will be more than sufficient for the plant to meet its expected performance targets," the statement said.  - 790 Talk Now.